Time for new Senate rankings!
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 20 80 +0,2
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 80 20 -0,2
(Mel Martinez), Florida 70 30 +0,3
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 10 90 +0,1
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 70 30 +0,7
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 100 0 0
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 10 90 +0,1
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 30 70 +0,3
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,6
Senate Ranking:
1. Missouri (open) -
2. New Hampshire (open) -
3. Kentucky (Bunning) -
4. Ohio (open) -
5. Connecticut (Dodd) +1
6. North Carolina (Burr) +1
7. Florida (open) -2
8. Texas (open) +2
9. Nevada (Reid) -
10. Delaware (open) +6
11. Colorado (Bennet) -3
12. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
13. Arizona (McCain) -
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) -3
15. Oklahoma (open?) new
There were a few big announcements last month, Crist's run for the Senate and Roy Cooper's decision not to do the same in North Carolina. Ironically, the North Carolina race moved up even further in my ranking, even though the likelihood of a seat change has decreased. Well... I still think that Burr is very vulnerable, and Heath Shuler is reconsidering a run. But Cooper was the Democrats' best chance of getting that seat. We have to see if there is another major development in this race. If not, it's going to drop a lot. Florida has already dropped. I think it's possible that Rubio defeats Charlie Crist in a primary, especially if he is backed by the Jeb Bush-camp (and Huckabee's evangelical support doesn't hurt either). Also, the midterm elections will give a boost to the more partisan primary candidates and their more active supporters. Still, Crist would be a heavy favorite in the general election against presumable Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. In any case, the republican primary will be interesting to watch, it's the kind of primary we didn't get in Pennsylvania.
At the top of the ranking, everything stays the same. Carnahan is the best possible candidate in the Missouri race, no matter which Republican runs. Paul Hodes continues to be the only candidate in New Hampshire. Jim Bunning is still not retiring.... Dodd is somewhat rebounding and getting heavy boosts from Obama. Time will tell if the anti-Dodd sentiment is going to prevail. Texas moves to a new record standing, mainly because other races with a similar likelihood of change are getting less interesting, and that Texas seat is still looking like a real battle, once it is open. On the other hand, Blanche Lincoln will not face Tim Griffin, Reid and Bennet continue to poll badly but don't face serious challengers, and Chuck Grassley is not retiring either.
These minor changes in probability also affect the open race for the Delaware Senate seat - a race without any candidate at all so far! Mike Castle hasn't decided yet and might be waiting for the return of Beau Biden and his reception (Biden's standing will depend on the standing of the Obama government like noone else). No other Republican has a chance to win, and no Democrat wants to piss off the Vice President by jumping in.
I wonder if the nomination of Sotomayor is creating any trouble for Sen. McCain. I guess he has to reject her because of his anti-immigrant challenger. That would severe his relatively good ties with hispanics and make a Democratic challenge more promising. But who is going to run?
At the very end, the Oklahoma seat makes a first entrance into the ranking, but it might very well be the only appearance, since Tom Coburn is going to announce his plans for the future today. If he retires, Democrats have 2 very good candidates, but since it's Oklahoma, even that might not be enough. If Coburn doesn't retire, the seat is his.
Taken all together, the Republicans enjoy a breath of fresh air after a series of misfortunes. They can continue their good streak by recruiting Mike Castle and Bob Beauprez. However, their improved outlook comes at a price of moderation. Charlie Crist and Mike Castle would be fairly moderate Senators, voting with the Democrats maybe half of the time or so. They'd gain more support for their agenda from Delaware, but they'd lose some in Florida. And since the Democrats already have their 60 seats, these new Republican senators would merely counter the conservative Democrats Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu.
If you pointed a gun at my head, I'd say that Carnahan, Hodes, Conway and Fisher flip their seats, and Castle wins the Delaware seat if he runs. The Republicans "should" be focussing on Nevada and Colorado, since they can change the partisan makeup of the Senate much more in these states than in New Hampshire or Florida (with Crist). At best (for Republicans), the 2010 elections will be a draw, with Carnahan winning in Missouri, Castle winning in Delaware, the Democrats picking up one seat ...somewhere.... (NH, OH, KT) and the Republicans also picking up one seat ...somewhere... (CO, NV, CT).
Monday, 1 June 2009
Friday, 1 May 2009
Senate predictions - May
Sigh.... busy with work at the moment... better times are going to come by June...
Anyway... lots of things happened in April. The fundraising for the first quarter has been released and Arlen Specter switched to the Democrats, sending SHOCKWAVES throughout the political world. Maybe this switch has made Jim Bunning realize that there is no space for his ego as he has apparently "endorsed" the exploratory commitee of Kentucky SoS and personal friend Trey Grayson. Grayson is more popular than Bunning, but he is just as popular as the best democratic challenger Jack Conway. So the race moves back into the toss-up category.
Also, John McCain gets a primary challenger with Chris Simcox, basically a one-issue candidacy against McCain's stance on immigration. It is a somewhat dangerous challenge, we have to see if the Republican base is just as tired of McCain as they were of Specter, that is, if the anti-incumbency mood is stronger that electoral considerations.
Specter's switch changes the situation in Pennsylvania, of course. The seat will most probably remain democratic, even if Rep. Jim Gerlach runs. However, Specter might consider supporting an amended version of EFCA or he will face serious pressure from the left and the unions. Other changes in this month's chart are related to the results of the fundraising.
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 20 80 +0,2
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 70 30 +0,7
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 10 90 +0,1
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,8
Senate Ranking:
1. Missouri (open) +3
2. New Hampshire (open) -1
3. Kentucky (open?) -1
4. Ohio (open) +1
5. Florida (open) +1
6. Connecticut (Dodd) +1
7. North Carolina (Burr) +1
8. Colorado (Bennet) +2
9. Nevada (Reid) -
10. Texas (open) +3
11. Arkansas (Lincoln) +3
12. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
13. Arizona (McCain) new
14. Illinois (Burris) +1
15. Iowa (Grassley) -3
The ranking suffers from the contradiction between vulnerable incumbents and incumbent fundraising advantage. Incumbents like Blanche Lincoln, Harry Reid and Michael Bennet really raised a lot of money, even though they are certainly vulnerable from a polling perspective. Blanche Lincoln is probably going to have 2 republican challengers, but none of them with her fundraising powers. The same is true for Michaee Bennet, and Harry Reid doesn't even have a challenger at the moment.
Missouri moves into the top spot because of Sarah Steelman's incoming primary challenge to Matt Blunt and Blunt's disappointing fundraising numbers, especially in comparison to Robin Carnahan's result. Carnahan has to be regarded as a favorite now.
New Hampshire loses its top position because of Paul Hodes' rather bad fundraising effort. But honestly, I think it is more of a "foregone-conclusion"-effect. There is still no challenger to Hodes.
Kentucky is a pure toss-up at the moment, just like Ohio where Lee Fisher would be a small favorite, but he has a small fundraising disadvantage against Republican candidate Rob Portman. This will allow Portman to catch up in name recognition while Fisher probably has to spend some of his money to defeat or intimidate primary challenger Jennifer Brunner. The Portman/Fisher race is going to be highly competitive.
In Florida, a lot still depends on Charlie Crist. Now that the Republicans have lost their 41st seat, it is somewhat less likely that Crist still runs. And he would probably have to come out against Obama's health care proposal which is going to dominate the political scene this fall. Still, Marco Rubio is a respectable Republican candidate on his own already, even though Rep. Kendrick Meek is enjoying heavy promotion from Bill Clinton which has had a great effect on his campaign account.
North Carolina is still waiting for Roy Cooper's announcement to run for the Senate which would elevate this race into the top ranks. The same is true for the yet-nonexisting Texas race for Kai Bailey Hutchison's seat. Bill White raised a formidable amount of money making him competitive against every possible Republican challenger. But well, the wheels need to start moving first.
Anyway... lots of things happened in April. The fundraising for the first quarter has been released and Arlen Specter switched to the Democrats, sending SHOCKWAVES throughout the political world. Maybe this switch has made Jim Bunning realize that there is no space for his ego as he has apparently "endorsed" the exploratory commitee of Kentucky SoS and personal friend Trey Grayson. Grayson is more popular than Bunning, but he is just as popular as the best democratic challenger Jack Conway. So the race moves back into the toss-up category.
Also, John McCain gets a primary challenger with Chris Simcox, basically a one-issue candidacy against McCain's stance on immigration. It is a somewhat dangerous challenge, we have to see if the Republican base is just as tired of McCain as they were of Specter, that is, if the anti-incumbency mood is stronger that electoral considerations.
Specter's switch changes the situation in Pennsylvania, of course. The seat will most probably remain democratic, even if Rep. Jim Gerlach runs. However, Specter might consider supporting an amended version of EFCA or he will face serious pressure from the left and the unions. Other changes in this month's chart are related to the results of the fundraising.
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 20 80 +0,2
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 70 30 +0,7
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 10 90 +0,1
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,8
Senate Ranking:
1. Missouri (open) +3
2. New Hampshire (open) -1
3. Kentucky (open?) -1
4. Ohio (open) +1
5. Florida (open) +1
6. Connecticut (Dodd) +1
7. North Carolina (Burr) +1
8. Colorado (Bennet) +2
9. Nevada (Reid) -
10. Texas (open) +3
11. Arkansas (Lincoln) +3
12. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
13. Arizona (McCain) new
14. Illinois (Burris) +1
15. Iowa (Grassley) -3
The ranking suffers from the contradiction between vulnerable incumbents and incumbent fundraising advantage. Incumbents like Blanche Lincoln, Harry Reid and Michael Bennet really raised a lot of money, even though they are certainly vulnerable from a polling perspective. Blanche Lincoln is probably going to have 2 republican challengers, but none of them with her fundraising powers. The same is true for Michaee Bennet, and Harry Reid doesn't even have a challenger at the moment.
Missouri moves into the top spot because of Sarah Steelman's incoming primary challenge to Matt Blunt and Blunt's disappointing fundraising numbers, especially in comparison to Robin Carnahan's result. Carnahan has to be regarded as a favorite now.
New Hampshire loses its top position because of Paul Hodes' rather bad fundraising effort. But honestly, I think it is more of a "foregone-conclusion"-effect. There is still no challenger to Hodes.
Kentucky is a pure toss-up at the moment, just like Ohio where Lee Fisher would be a small favorite, but he has a small fundraising disadvantage against Republican candidate Rob Portman. This will allow Portman to catch up in name recognition while Fisher probably has to spend some of his money to defeat or intimidate primary challenger Jennifer Brunner. The Portman/Fisher race is going to be highly competitive.
In Florida, a lot still depends on Charlie Crist. Now that the Republicans have lost their 41st seat, it is somewhat less likely that Crist still runs. And he would probably have to come out against Obama's health care proposal which is going to dominate the political scene this fall. Still, Marco Rubio is a respectable Republican candidate on his own already, even though Rep. Kendrick Meek is enjoying heavy promotion from Bill Clinton which has had a great effect on his campaign account.
North Carolina is still waiting for Roy Cooper's announcement to run for the Senate which would elevate this race into the top ranks. The same is true for the yet-nonexisting Texas race for Kai Bailey Hutchison's seat. Bill White raised a formidable amount of money making him competitive against every possible Republican challenger. But well, the wheels need to start moving first.
Thursday, 2 April 2009
I didn't have a lot of time in the past 3 weeks, I'll try to post more frequently in the future. Anyway, here's the updated list:
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 60 40 +0,6
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 70 30 +0,7
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 60 40 +0,6
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +3,3
Some new polls have changed the situation slightly. Chris Dodd is in serious trouble against Rob Simmons. A seat in Connecticut is something the Democrats can't afford to lose, especially since there are enough possible contenders to replace Dodd. If he runs in the general, he will have to rely on people's short memories and the support of the Democratic machine - not impossible, but very hard. Arlen Specter is poised to lose the primary at the moment and the campaigns have already begun with Specter's first anti-Toomey ad. I also think that Specter's rejection of EFCA is not going to help his chances in a general election, so the seat might be slipping out of the Republicans' hands.
In New Hampshire, Paul Hodes leads in a hypothetical matchup against his strongest opponent, ex-Senator John Sununu (almost a quasi-incumbent). It is looking really good for him. Jim Bunning's situation remains essentially unchanged and pessimistic. Richard Burr shows signs of vulnerability. His approval rating is below 50%. The strongest Democratic challenger, Roy Cooper, would have a good chance at beating him, but he needs to enter first. Even if he doesn't, Burr will have to fight for his reelection.
Senate Ranking
1. New Hampshire (open) -
2. Kentucky (Bunning) -
3. Pennsylvania (Specter) +5
4. Missouri (open) -1
5. Ohio (open) -1
6. Florida (open) -1
7. Connecticut (Dodd) +5
8. North Carolina (Burr) -2
9. Nevada (Reid) -1
10. Colorado (Bennett) -1
11. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
12. Iowa (Grassley) -1
13. (Texas - open) -
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) -
15. Illinois (Burris) -
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 60 40 +0,6
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 70 30 +0,7
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 60 40 +0,6
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +3,3
Some new polls have changed the situation slightly. Chris Dodd is in serious trouble against Rob Simmons. A seat in Connecticut is something the Democrats can't afford to lose, especially since there are enough possible contenders to replace Dodd. If he runs in the general, he will have to rely on people's short memories and the support of the Democratic machine - not impossible, but very hard. Arlen Specter is poised to lose the primary at the moment and the campaigns have already begun with Specter's first anti-Toomey ad. I also think that Specter's rejection of EFCA is not going to help his chances in a general election, so the seat might be slipping out of the Republicans' hands.
In New Hampshire, Paul Hodes leads in a hypothetical matchup against his strongest opponent, ex-Senator John Sununu (almost a quasi-incumbent). It is looking really good for him. Jim Bunning's situation remains essentially unchanged and pessimistic. Richard Burr shows signs of vulnerability. His approval rating is below 50%. The strongest Democratic challenger, Roy Cooper, would have a good chance at beating him, but he needs to enter first. Even if he doesn't, Burr will have to fight for his reelection.
Senate Ranking
1. New Hampshire (open) -
2. Kentucky (Bunning) -
3. Pennsylvania (Specter) +5
4. Missouri (open) -1
5. Ohio (open) -1
6. Florida (open) -1
7. Connecticut (Dodd) +5
8. North Carolina (Burr) -2
9. Nevada (Reid) -1
10. Colorado (Bennett) -1
11. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
12. Iowa (Grassley) -1
13. (Texas - open) -
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) -
15. Illinois (Burris) -
Saturday, 28 February 2009
Obama's opponent in 2012 - First edition
Here's another popular prediction game to play. Who will be the republican challenger for the presidency? I am assuming that the USA will have somewhat recovered by then (if not, we're in serious trouble and predictions would get pretty hard), so Obama will easily get the democratic nomination.
Several aspects have to be considered: the candidates - of course, the party structure, the primary election system, polls, and other minor factors.
The Republican Party changed their primary system. They will divide the states into three tiers, early states, small states and big states. So all the traditional early states will vote at the same time: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada. These states can give the winner a lot of momentum so we have to prefer candidates that can do well in these states.
We also have to follow the way the Republican Party is going. Will they go back to their conservative roots, that is, becoming even more conservative, or will we see a move to the center? At the moment by the way, I'd say it's the former, but it's not impossible that this is going to change at some point.
We're also getting the first polls now. The CPAC straw poll for example, showed a wide field of candidates, with Mitt Romney getting the most votes (but only 20%). A similar CNN poll a few days ago, saw Sarah Palin at the top, with Romney and Huckabee close behind, Jindal a distant 4th. But it's also very early, so the polls don't tell much yet.
At the beginning, I will give a list of the potential candidates (in my opinion) and make a few remarks about their chances in general:
Former governor Mitt Romney: As governor of Massachusetts, he proved that he could work across the aisle and he wasn't the hardcore conservative he tried to be during the 2008 primaries. There is some genuine appeal to him that seems to attract moderate republicans, pro-small business republicans, libertarians and hispanics. In fact, he has a natural appeal to every republican but the core republicans, and that's his problem. He has serious relevance problems. He needs to stay in the public eye and he needs to define his brand which is almost destroyed by his pandering. As a mormon, he can probably do whatever he wants, he will not win every single evangelical and further pandering will only hurt him. He is trying to build an intra-party network now by giving money to friendly congressmen. It reminds me of Nixon's post 1962-strategy to stay relevant. But Romney is going to collide with other Republicans there.
Former governor Mike Huckabee: As governor of Arkansas, he proved that he could work across the aisle and he wasn't the hardcore conserva... wait.... Well, Huckabee raised taxes, he isn't your ordinary fiscal conservative, but of course, he is a social conservative, probably THE social conservative in the field. He truly believes in what he says, and I suspect that this is why the republican establishment never really supported him. He is an honest man, with stern beliefs and that makes him one of the most popular republicans, with people that are no republicans. He is a good campaigner with a platform (his show on Fox News) so we can expect him to stay in the public eye for a while. Still, some very important conservative voices, Grover Norquist and every Republican who is against the strong emphasis on social conservatism, is not going to support him.
Governor Sarah Palin: She had to take a serious drubbing during the election. She missed the CPAC and an energy conference she was supposed to host along with Gov. Brian Schweitzer. Still, her popularity with the base is unrivaled. I suspect that she will focus on Alaska now, avoid the spotlight and try to get something done. Her job will be hard enough anyway. The collapse of the oil price could kill her ambitions, but most of the stuff that happens in Alaska doesn't get out. It will never be as it once was, but there is still tremendous potential in her rabid populist style and maybe she'll be a little better prepared next time.
Governor Bobby Jindal: His reply to the president's non-SOTU was not good, it was really bad. I'd go so far and say that it kills his chances for 2012. Yes, he is the conservative hope and future and all that, but there will be no Bobby Jindal-fraction within the party, not yet. If his false Katrina-story works against him he will be done for quite some time. Sometimes things change so fast....
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich: A very interesting case. Gingrich has got the network that Mitt Romney only dreams of. He can have an idea that electrifies the whole conservative movement as long as it gets out next to 10 other, not so good ideas. Of course, he has to carry his problematic biography around: his divorces, infidelity and unpopularity at the end of his House career. Still, if the Republicans need a leader with more experience than personality, with more ideas than slogans, they will turn towards him. Maybe he'll prefer to stay behind the scenes and to lead someone else through the campaign, that's what I actually think, but if there is no such leader, he might be very tempted to run. He could be a very good compromise candidate. Evangelicals won't like him, but they'll prefer him over Romney. Movement conservatives can support him if Jindal implodes. And well, he is a southern white conservative - that might be a rarity in 2012 (and so, if Republicans choose Newt they will walk into the past).
Governor Charlie Crist: At the moment, it is pretty much impossible for him to win a republican primary. However, if the party moves towards the center he becomes the Nr. 1 choice VERY quickly. There is almost no other possible moderate choice (Utah Gov. Huntsman aspires to fill the void). If he wins the nomination, we will know that the Reaganite Republican Party is dead and something new is in the making. It requires that the influence of social conservatives and movement conservatives has waned. Well, we need to keep an eye on him.
The field: There are other potential candidates, and there is still a lot of time - well, not so much time if you still have to make up your mind, but enough time for a long-shot candidate already in the running to jump into the spotlight. I will write about them when I think that they are "worth" it, in terms of relevance. Here is a list of the people that I consider to be these potential long-shot candidates: Mark Sanford, Haley Barbour, Jon Huntsman, Eric Cantor, Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune.
And so, my first, very basic ranking would look like this:
1. Mitt Romney (25%)
2. Sarah Palin (20%)
3. Newt Gingrich (20%)
4. Mike Huckabee (15%)
5. Bobby Jindal (5%)
6. Charlie Crist (5%)
7. The field (10%)
Romney has got the money and something of a hereditary right for the candidacy (he finished 2nd in 2008, which seems to be very good in a Republican primary under the aspect of future candidacies). The economy is his area of expertise. He is a relentless optimist, not unlike Obama, but he needs to get some authenticity, or else it looks a little phony. And of course, 25% are not that much. It's actually a rather bad sign for any party if there is no leader and no obvious successor. Romney tries to become that leader, and that's actually his only chance to stay relevant.
Several aspects have to be considered: the candidates - of course, the party structure, the primary election system, polls, and other minor factors.
The Republican Party changed their primary system. They will divide the states into three tiers, early states, small states and big states. So all the traditional early states will vote at the same time: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada. These states can give the winner a lot of momentum so we have to prefer candidates that can do well in these states.
We also have to follow the way the Republican Party is going. Will they go back to their conservative roots, that is, becoming even more conservative, or will we see a move to the center? At the moment by the way, I'd say it's the former, but it's not impossible that this is going to change at some point.
We're also getting the first polls now. The CPAC straw poll for example, showed a wide field of candidates, with Mitt Romney getting the most votes (but only 20%). A similar CNN poll a few days ago, saw Sarah Palin at the top, with Romney and Huckabee close behind, Jindal a distant 4th. But it's also very early, so the polls don't tell much yet.
At the beginning, I will give a list of the potential candidates (in my opinion) and make a few remarks about their chances in general:
Former governor Mitt Romney: As governor of Massachusetts, he proved that he could work across the aisle and he wasn't the hardcore conservative he tried to be during the 2008 primaries. There is some genuine appeal to him that seems to attract moderate republicans, pro-small business republicans, libertarians and hispanics. In fact, he has a natural appeal to every republican but the core republicans, and that's his problem. He has serious relevance problems. He needs to stay in the public eye and he needs to define his brand which is almost destroyed by his pandering. As a mormon, he can probably do whatever he wants, he will not win every single evangelical and further pandering will only hurt him. He is trying to build an intra-party network now by giving money to friendly congressmen. It reminds me of Nixon's post 1962-strategy to stay relevant. But Romney is going to collide with other Republicans there.
Former governor Mike Huckabee: As governor of Arkansas, he proved that he could work across the aisle and he wasn't the hardcore conserva... wait.... Well, Huckabee raised taxes, he isn't your ordinary fiscal conservative, but of course, he is a social conservative, probably THE social conservative in the field. He truly believes in what he says, and I suspect that this is why the republican establishment never really supported him. He is an honest man, with stern beliefs and that makes him one of the most popular republicans, with people that are no republicans. He is a good campaigner with a platform (his show on Fox News) so we can expect him to stay in the public eye for a while. Still, some very important conservative voices, Grover Norquist and every Republican who is against the strong emphasis on social conservatism, is not going to support him.
Governor Sarah Palin: She had to take a serious drubbing during the election. She missed the CPAC and an energy conference she was supposed to host along with Gov. Brian Schweitzer. Still, her popularity with the base is unrivaled. I suspect that she will focus on Alaska now, avoid the spotlight and try to get something done. Her job will be hard enough anyway. The collapse of the oil price could kill her ambitions, but most of the stuff that happens in Alaska doesn't get out. It will never be as it once was, but there is still tremendous potential in her rabid populist style and maybe she'll be a little better prepared next time.
Governor Bobby Jindal: His reply to the president's non-SOTU was not good, it was really bad. I'd go so far and say that it kills his chances for 2012. Yes, he is the conservative hope and future and all that, but there will be no Bobby Jindal-fraction within the party, not yet. If his false Katrina-story works against him he will be done for quite some time. Sometimes things change so fast....
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich: A very interesting case. Gingrich has got the network that Mitt Romney only dreams of. He can have an idea that electrifies the whole conservative movement as long as it gets out next to 10 other, not so good ideas. Of course, he has to carry his problematic biography around: his divorces, infidelity and unpopularity at the end of his House career. Still, if the Republicans need a leader with more experience than personality, with more ideas than slogans, they will turn towards him. Maybe he'll prefer to stay behind the scenes and to lead someone else through the campaign, that's what I actually think, but if there is no such leader, he might be very tempted to run. He could be a very good compromise candidate. Evangelicals won't like him, but they'll prefer him over Romney. Movement conservatives can support him if Jindal implodes. And well, he is a southern white conservative - that might be a rarity in 2012 (and so, if Republicans choose Newt they will walk into the past).
Governor Charlie Crist: At the moment, it is pretty much impossible for him to win a republican primary. However, if the party moves towards the center he becomes the Nr. 1 choice VERY quickly. There is almost no other possible moderate choice (Utah Gov. Huntsman aspires to fill the void). If he wins the nomination, we will know that the Reaganite Republican Party is dead and something new is in the making. It requires that the influence of social conservatives and movement conservatives has waned. Well, we need to keep an eye on him.
The field: There are other potential candidates, and there is still a lot of time - well, not so much time if you still have to make up your mind, but enough time for a long-shot candidate already in the running to jump into the spotlight. I will write about them when I think that they are "worth" it, in terms of relevance. Here is a list of the people that I consider to be these potential long-shot candidates: Mark Sanford, Haley Barbour, Jon Huntsman, Eric Cantor, Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune.
And so, my first, very basic ranking would look like this:
1. Mitt Romney (25%)
2. Sarah Palin (20%)
3. Newt Gingrich (20%)
4. Mike Huckabee (15%)
5. Bobby Jindal (5%)
6. Charlie Crist (5%)
7. The field (10%)
Romney has got the money and something of a hereditary right for the candidacy (he finished 2nd in 2008, which seems to be very good in a Republican primary under the aspect of future candidacies). The economy is his area of expertise. He is a relentless optimist, not unlike Obama, but he needs to get some authenticity, or else it looks a little phony. And of course, 25% are not that much. It's actually a rather bad sign for any party if there is no leader and no obvious successor. Romney tries to become that leader, and that's actually his only chance to stay relevant.
Senate predictions - March
I plan to update my predictions as close as possible to the 1st day of a new month.
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 80 20 -0,2
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 90 10 -0,1
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 60 40 +0,6
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 30 70 +0,3
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,9
Senate Ranking (after stimulus bill compromise)
1. New Hampshire (open) -
2. Kentucky (Bunning) +2
3. Missouri (open) -1
4. Ohio (open) -1
5. Florida (open) -
6. North Carolina (Burr) +2
7. Pennsylvania (Specter) +2
8. Nevada (Reid) -2
9. Colorado (Bennett) -
10. Louisiana (Vitter) new
11. Iowa (Grassley) -
12. Connecticut (Dodd) new
13. (Texas - open) new
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) new
15. Illinois (Burris) -2
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 80 20 -0,2
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 90 10 -0,1
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 60 40 +0,6
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 30 70 +0,3
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,9
I just heard the news of Kathleen Sebelius nomination. That makes the Kansas seat completely safe for the GOP. A Dorgan vs. Hoeven match in North Dakota is also getting unlikely. A recent R2000 poll showed that Dorgan would beat Hoeven by a mile, not because Hoeven is unpopular, but because North Dakotans want him to stay right where he is, in the governor's mansion. I had almost lowered Bunning's chances to 30% after his kamikaze threat, but I am not quite there yet. Still, Bunning is essentially bankrupt and unpopular (and erratic). If things don't change it's looking pretty grim for him and the Republicans that cannot put up a primary challenger if they want to keep their 41st seat. Actually, barring a major change of trajectory, the seats in Kentucky and New Hampshire are moving into Democratic territory (because the Republicans don't have a first-tier candidate that could face their opponent. Missouri is a different case, by the way.) and I will gradually change my projection.
I also made some other changes, caused by the vote on Obama's stimulus bill and the decreasing chance that some of these candidates have to face credible primary challengers (Lincoln, Burr), so the ranking and the probability is synchronized again. Oh, and it seems that David Vitter is going to have a relatively hard time. There are rumors of a (serious) primary challenge, of a credible democratic challenger, and of course Stormy Daniels.
Although the trouble doesn't end for Roland Burris, the seat in Illinois is looking very safe for the Democrats, now that Obama's basketball pal Alexi Giannoulias has announced his bid for the seat.
I also made some other changes, caused by the vote on Obama's stimulus bill and the decreasing chance that some of these candidates have to face credible primary challengers (Lincoln, Burr), so the ranking and the probability is synchronized again. Oh, and it seems that David Vitter is going to have a relatively hard time. There are rumors of a (serious) primary challenge, of a credible democratic challenger, and of course Stormy Daniels.
Although the trouble doesn't end for Roland Burris, the seat in Illinois is looking very safe for the Democrats, now that Obama's basketball pal Alexi Giannoulias has announced his bid for the seat.
Senate Ranking (after stimulus bill compromise)
1. New Hampshire (open) -
2. Kentucky (Bunning) +2
3. Missouri (open) -1
4. Ohio (open) -1
5. Florida (open) -
6. North Carolina (Burr) +2
7. Pennsylvania (Specter) +2
8. Nevada (Reid) -2
9. Colorado (Bennett) -
10. Louisiana (Vitter) new
11. Iowa (Grassley) -
12. Connecticut (Dodd) new
13. (Texas - open) new
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) new
15. Illinois (Burris) -2
Friday, 6 February 2009
Senate Stimulus Bill - vote calculation
Just an experiment... it's the second edition of the calculation.
Safe Democratic "yea" votes: 53
Likelihood of "yea" on Democratic side:
Evan Bayh: 80%
Blanche Lincoln: 90%
Ben Nelson: 70%
Jon Tester: 90%
Al Franken (not there
)
Ted Kennedy: 80% (abstain 20%)
Total: 4,1 votes = 57,1 votes
Safe Republican "nay" votes: 33
Likelihood of "nay" on Republican side:
Jim Bunning: 90% (abstain: 10%)
Susan Collins: 50% (abstain: 10%)
Judd Gregg: 0% (abstain 100%)
Lisa Murkowski: 90%
Olympia Snowe: 30%
Arlen Specter: 60%
George Voinovich: 70%
Kai Bailey Hutchison: 90%
Total: 4,8 votes = 37,8
Possible democratic "nay" votes: 0,7 (37,8 + 0,7 = 38,5)
Possible republican "yea" votes: 1,8 (57,1 + 1,8 = 58,9)
Result: 59-39, 1 abstain + Al Franken not seated
Safe Democratic "yea" votes: 53
Likelihood of "yea" on Democratic side:
Evan Bayh: 80%
Blanche Lincoln: 90%
Ben Nelson: 70%
Jon Tester: 90%
Al Franken (not there
)Ted Kennedy: 80% (abstain 20%)
Total: 4,1 votes = 57,1 votes
Safe Republican "nay" votes: 33
Likelihood of "nay" on Republican side:
Jim Bunning: 90% (abstain: 10%)
Susan Collins: 50% (abstain: 10%)
Judd Gregg: 0% (abstain 100%)
Lisa Murkowski: 90%
Olympia Snowe: 30%
Arlen Specter: 60%
George Voinovich: 70%
Kai Bailey Hutchison: 90%
Total: 4,8 votes = 37,8
Possible democratic "nay" votes: 0,7 (37,8 + 0,7 = 38,5)
Possible republican "yea" votes: 1,8 (57,1 + 1,8 = 58,9)
Result: 59-39, 1 abstain + Al Franken not seated
Tuesday, 3 February 2009
US Senate Predictions - February
February edition.
A few changes: Michael Bennett will not face the strongest Republican challenger, making his seat almost safe.
Kirsten Gillibrand is a perfect pick in my opinion. She will recieve enough support from the Democratic leadership to fend off a primary challenge and Republicans will have no chance to beat her.
Harry Reid's weakness was just momentarily. His seat would be endangered if Reid's leadership were a serious failure, a failure extending beyond technicalities only partisans care about. Seriously, the more boring Reid appears, the less people will care about anything he does. And let's face it, Obama won Nevada by 14%. Anyway, my prediction changed from 70:30 to 80:20, it could be even better for him in a few months.
The biggest change happened in New Hampshire. It seems that moderate Republican Bonnie Newman is going to replace Judd Gregg. She does not intend to run in 2010, making it an open seat. There is just one Republican left who has got a serious chance against Carol Shea-Porter or Paul Hodes, that is John Sununu who just lost against Jeanne Shaheen. Not promising. Paul Hodes is said to announce his candidacy in a week. If that happens, and if there is no primary, Hodes is the clear favorite, making this seat the biggest pick-up chance of the cycle.
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 70 30 -0,3
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 90 10 -0,1
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 90 10 -0,1
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 10 90 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 30 70 +0,3
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 80 20 -0,2
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 100 0 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 50 50 +0,5
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +3,3
We still need basic information about:
whether Kathleen Sebelius is going to run in Kansas
whether Kay Bailey Hutchison is going to run for governor in Texas (Sarah Palin just endorsed incumbent Perry. Is this a move to keep Hutchison in the Senate?)
whether John Hoeven is going to run against Byron Dorgan, and it gets less likely with each day
whether Blanche Lincoln is going to face a credible opponent.
whether Roy Blunt wins the Republican primary in Missouri, pulling the race back to a toss-up.
whether Charlie Crist is going to run for the seat in Florida... I really can't imagine this to happen
Next month we might also be able to put a few of those 90% races into the 100% column. Many of these races contain a certain chance of a primary challenge against a popular incumbent or potential health problems. Candidacies are usually announced in February or March of the off-cycle year.
Senate Ranking (after stimulus bill compromise)
1. New Hampshire (open)
2. Missouri (open)
3. Ohio (open)
4. Kentucky (Bunning)
5. Florida (open)
6. Nevada (Reid)
7. Kansas (open)
8. North Carolina (Burr)
9. Colorado (Bennett)
10. Pennsylvania (Specter)
11. Iowa (Grassley)
12. Arizona (McCain)
13. Illinois (Burris)
A few changes: Michael Bennett will not face the strongest Republican challenger, making his seat almost safe.
Kirsten Gillibrand is a perfect pick in my opinion. She will recieve enough support from the Democratic leadership to fend off a primary challenge and Republicans will have no chance to beat her.
Harry Reid's weakness was just momentarily. His seat would be endangered if Reid's leadership were a serious failure, a failure extending beyond technicalities only partisans care about. Seriously, the more boring Reid appears, the less people will care about anything he does. And let's face it, Obama won Nevada by 14%. Anyway, my prediction changed from 70:30 to 80:20, it could be even better for him in a few months.
The biggest change happened in New Hampshire. It seems that moderate Republican Bonnie Newman is going to replace Judd Gregg. She does not intend to run in 2010, making it an open seat. There is just one Republican left who has got a serious chance against Carol Shea-Porter or Paul Hodes, that is John Sununu who just lost against Jeanne Shaheen. Not promising. Paul Hodes is said to announce his candidacy in a week. If that happens, and if there is no primary, Hodes is the clear favorite, making this seat the biggest pick-up chance of the cycle.
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 70 30 -0,3
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 90 10 -0,1
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 90 10 -0,1
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 10 90 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 30 70 +0,3
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 80 20 -0,2
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 100 0 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 50 50 +0,5
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +3,3
We still need basic information about:
whether Kathleen Sebelius is going to run in Kansas
whether Kay Bailey Hutchison is going to run for governor in Texas (Sarah Palin just endorsed incumbent Perry. Is this a move to keep Hutchison in the Senate?)
whether John Hoeven is going to run against Byron Dorgan, and it gets less likely with each day
whether Blanche Lincoln is going to face a credible opponent.
whether Roy Blunt wins the Republican primary in Missouri, pulling the race back to a toss-up.
whether Charlie Crist is going to run for the seat in Florida... I really can't imagine this to happen
Next month we might also be able to put a few of those 90% races into the 100% column. Many of these races contain a certain chance of a primary challenge against a popular incumbent or potential health problems. Candidacies are usually announced in February or March of the off-cycle year.
Senate Ranking (after stimulus bill compromise)
1. New Hampshire (open)
2. Missouri (open)
3. Ohio (open)
4. Kentucky (Bunning)
5. Florida (open)
6. Nevada (Reid)
7. Kansas (open)
8. North Carolina (Burr)
9. Colorado (Bennett)
10. Pennsylvania (Specter)
11. Iowa (Grassley)
12. Arizona (McCain)
13. Illinois (Burris)
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