US Senate Predictions - February

February edition.



A few changes: Michael Bennett will not face the strongest Republican challenger, making his seat almost safe.

Kirsten Gillibrand is a perfect pick in my opinion. She will recieve enough support from the Democratic leadership to fend off a primary challenge and Republicans will have no chance to beat her.

Harry Reid's weakness was just momentarily. His seat would be endangered if Reid's leadership were a serious failure, a failure extending beyond technicalities only partisans care about. Seriously, the more boring Reid appears, the less people will care about anything he does. And let's face it, Obama won Nevada by 14%. Anyway, my prediction changed from 70:30 to 80:20, it could be even better for him in a few months.

The biggest change happened in New Hampshire. It seems that moderate Republican Bonnie Newman is going to replace Judd Gregg. She does not intend to run in 2010, making it an open seat. There is just one Republican left who has got a serious chance against Carol Shea-Porter or Paul Hodes, that is John Sununu who just lost against Jeanne Shaheen. Not promising. Paul Hodes is said to announce his candidacy in a week. If that happens, and if there is no primary, Hodes is the clear favorite, making this seat the biggest pick-up chance of the cycle.


Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 70 30 -0,3
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 90 10 -0,1
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 90 10 -0,1
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 10 90 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 30 70 +0,3
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 80 20 -0,2
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 100 0 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 50 50 +0,5
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +3,3


We still need basic information about:
whether Kathleen Sebelius is going to run in Kansas
whether Kay Bailey Hutchison is going to run for governor in Texas (Sarah Palin just endorsed incumbent Perry. Is this a move to keep Hutchison in the Senate?)
whether John Hoeven is going to run against Byron Dorgan, and it gets less likely with each day
whether Blanche Lincoln is going to face a credible opponent.
whether Roy Blunt wins the Republican primary in Missouri, pulling the race back to a toss-up.
whether Charlie Crist is going to run for the seat in Florida... I really can't imagine this to happen

Next month we might also be able to put a few of those 90% races into the 100% column. Many of these races contain a certain chance of a primary challenge against a popular incumbent or potential health problems. Candidacies are usually announced in February or March of the off-cycle year.


Senate Ranking (after stimulus bill compromise)
1. New Hampshire (open)
2. Missouri (open)
3. Ohio (open)
4. Kentucky (Bunning)
5. Florida (open)
6. Nevada (Reid)
7. Kansas (open)
8. North Carolina (Burr)
9. Colorado (Bennett)
10. Pennsylvania (Specter)
11. Iowa (Grassley)
12. Arizona (McCain)
13. Illinois (Burris)