Senate Stimulus Bill - vote calculation

Just an experiment... it's the second edition of the calculation.

Safe Democratic "yea" votes: 53

Likelihood of "yea" on Democratic side:
Evan Bayh: 80%
Blanche Lincoln: 90%
Ben Nelson: 70%
Jon Tester: 90%
Al Franken (not there )
Ted Kennedy: 80% (abstain 20%)

Total: 4,1 votes = 57,1 votes


Safe Republican "nay" votes: 33

Likelihood of "nay" on Republican side:

Jim Bunning: 90% (abstain: 10%)
Susan Collins: 50% (abstain: 10%)
Judd Gregg: 0% (abstain 100%)
Lisa Murkowski: 90%
Olympia Snowe: 30%
Arlen Specter: 60%
George Voinovich: 70%
Kai Bailey Hutchison: 90%

Total: 4,8 votes = 37,8

Possible democratic "nay" votes: 0,7 (37,8 + 0,7 = 38,5)
Possible republican "yea" votes: 1,8 (57,1 + 1,8 = 58,9)

Result: 59-39, 1 abstain + Al Franken not seated