I didn't have a lot of time in the past 3 weeks, I'll try to post more frequently in the future. Anyway, here's the updated list:


Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 60 40 +0,6
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 70 30 +0,7
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 60 40 +0,6
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +3,3

Some new polls have changed the situation slightly. Chris Dodd is in serious trouble against Rob Simmons. A seat in Connecticut is something the Democrats can't afford to lose, especially since there are enough possible contenders to replace Dodd. If he runs in the general, he will have to rely on people's short memories and the support of the Democratic machine - not impossible, but very hard. Arlen Specter is poised to lose the primary at the moment and the campaigns have already begun with Specter's first anti-Toomey ad. I also think that Specter's rejection of EFCA is not going to help his chances in a general election, so the seat might be slipping out of the Republicans' hands.
In New Hampshire, Paul Hodes leads in a hypothetical matchup against his strongest opponent, ex-Senator John Sununu (almost a quasi-incumbent). It is looking really good for him. Jim Bunning's situation remains essentially unchanged and pessimistic. Richard Burr shows signs of vulnerability. His approval rating is below 50%. The strongest Democratic challenger, Roy Cooper, would have a good chance at beating him, but he needs to enter first. Even if he doesn't, Burr will have to fight for his reelection.


Senate Ranking
1. New Hampshire (open) -
2. Kentucky (Bunning) -
3. Pennsylvania (Specter) +5
4. Missouri (open) -1
5. Ohio (open) -1
6. Florida (open) -1
7. Connecticut (Dodd) +5
8. North Carolina (Burr) -2
9. Nevada (Reid) -1
10. Colorado (Bennett) -1
11. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
12. Iowa (Grassley) -1
13. (Texas - open) -
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) -
15. Illinois (Burris) -