Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 80 20 -0,2
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 90 10 -0,1
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 60 40 +0,6
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 30 70 +0,3
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,9
I just heard the news of Kathleen Sebelius nomination. That makes the Kansas seat completely safe for the GOP. A Dorgan vs. Hoeven match in North Dakota is also getting unlikely. A recent R2000 poll showed that Dorgan would beat Hoeven by a mile, not because Hoeven is unpopular, but because North Dakotans want him to stay right where he is, in the governor's mansion. I had almost lowered Bunning's chances to 30% after his kamikaze threat, but I am not quite there yet. Still, Bunning is essentially bankrupt and unpopular (and erratic). If things don't change it's looking pretty grim for him and the Republicans that cannot put up a primary challenger if they want to keep their 41st seat. Actually, barring a major change of trajectory, the seats in Kentucky and New Hampshire are moving into Democratic territory (because the Republicans don't have a first-tier candidate that could face their opponent. Missouri is a different case, by the way.) and I will gradually change my projection.
I also made some other changes, caused by the vote on Obama's stimulus bill and the decreasing chance that some of these candidates have to face credible primary challengers (Lincoln, Burr), so the ranking and the probability is synchronized again. Oh, and it seems that David Vitter is going to have a relatively hard time. There are rumors of a (serious) primary challenge, of a credible democratic challenger, and of course Stormy Daniels.
Although the trouble doesn't end for Roland Burris, the seat in Illinois is looking very safe for the Democrats, now that Obama's basketball pal Alexi Giannoulias has announced his bid for the seat.
I also made some other changes, caused by the vote on Obama's stimulus bill and the decreasing chance that some of these candidates have to face credible primary challengers (Lincoln, Burr), so the ranking and the probability is synchronized again. Oh, and it seems that David Vitter is going to have a relatively hard time. There are rumors of a (serious) primary challenge, of a credible democratic challenger, and of course Stormy Daniels.
Although the trouble doesn't end for Roland Burris, the seat in Illinois is looking very safe for the Democrats, now that Obama's basketball pal Alexi Giannoulias has announced his bid for the seat.
Senate Ranking (after stimulus bill compromise)
1. New Hampshire (open) -
2. Kentucky (Bunning) +2
3. Missouri (open) -1
4. Ohio (open) -1
5. Florida (open) -
6. North Carolina (Burr) +2
7. Pennsylvania (Specter) +2
8. Nevada (Reid) -2
9. Colorado (Bennett) -
10. Louisiana (Vitter) new
11. Iowa (Grassley) -
12. Connecticut (Dodd) new
13. (Texas - open) new
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) new
15. Illinois (Burris) -2
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