Senate predictions January 2010

Obviously, the new year starts with a bang. The democratic Senators Dorgan and Dodd are going to retire. However, these retirements have different effects. The dust still needs to settle, but it is very likely that their successors will be Richard Blumenthal and John Hoeven - even though it's not a done deal that either of them actually runs. Still, North Dakota will probably get a republican senator soon, and Connecticut will "probably" get a new democratic senator - simply by the virtue of each state's partisan make-up.
Another interesting story is the retirement of Florida GOP-chair Jim Greer. In my opinion, it is obvious now, that Marco Rubio will beat Charlie Crist who just lost the support of the state GOP apparatus. The possibility of another major upheaval is increasing rapidly: either Crist drops out (tries to stay Gov., against Republican Bill McClollum who is a Jeb Bush republican just like Marco Rubio) or he switches his party affiliation. Now, I am making heavy assumptions here, but in 2008 Crist pulled a marriage out of his hat to become a potential VP prospect. He tried to bolster his bipartisan image by supporting the stimulus, and then regretting, and then confirming it. Crist definitely wants to keep his career. I believe that his best chance is to run as a Democrat. If he ran as an independent he would be in a three-way-race and probably get squeezed by the partisan camps. This is why the Florida race gets another bump. Basically, it is on its way to return to the 50-50 status it was before Crist joined. Rubio has solidifed his position, but Crist might very well take some of his republican loyalists into the democratic camp, as a protest vote against Rubio's extreme course (a.k.a. NY-23 reloaded).

Maybe I should wait another week or so to post the January update, but the times are too interesting to pass up on this opportunity. But we might not have seen the last mayor development.
However, Kirsten Gillibrand's seat is absolutely safe now. I had thought of that before, simply because I didn't believe in Rudy Giuliani's chances. Now Giuliani has agreed with me. Peter King might jump in though he would lose...but what else should he do? He's about to lose his house seat after the caucus.
Some new polls out of New Hampshire contain bad news for Paul Hodes who would lose against either Kelly Ayotte or Avide LaMontagne. In my opinion however, it doesn't change the situation a lot because it only makes a LaMontagne campaign more likely. And the New Hampshirites will not accept a teabagger. His unelectability will get obvious during the campaign. Kelly Ayotte is in a different situation. However, I am going to tell another secret: The teabaggers prefer manly candidates. Carly Fiorina will lose to teabagger Chuck DeVore. Kay Bailey Hutchison is losing to secessionist Rick Perry. The republican voters are male and they prefer their female candidates crazy and unhinged (Palin, Bachmann, Virginia Foxx, Lynn Jenkins etc....). Kelly Ayotte will not have the enthusiasm that is necessary to win a primary in a midterm year. I don't want to say that LaMontagne WILL beat Ayotte, but I say that it is getting more likely.

Something about the fundamental trends: The Dems are in the process of losing support. That was almost inevitable. The governing party loses independents during a recession. So far however, the Republican Party has not been able to improve its own standing among the voters. We are "only" seeing a general anti-establishment wave. That WILL hurt Demcorats more than Republicans, but not as much as a Republican wave hurts them. Michael Steele yesterday basically admitted that the Republicans will not take back the House. That was a dumb thing to say of course, because it doesn't ease the financial problems of the party. But it might lead to a more useful allocation of ressources. The Senate is the best place to block the democratic agenda. It remains to be seen if the financial situation of the republicans will have a general effect on the races but as long as we don't see a wave election the Dems can muddle through.
Muddling through is something the Dems have to do anyway until the economy and especially the job situation recovers. The economy will determine the independent vote.
Current worries about Democratic enthusiasm are justified but they will be somewhat alleviated during the course of the campaign. Jon Corzine of New Jersey caught up to Chris Cristie during the campaign. The enthusiasm gap will decrease and the Republicans don't have a lot of room to grow. So the problem is not as bad as it looks now, although it DOES exist. We don't yet know the full scope of that problem.
I am hearing that immigration reform will be THE issue of 2010. That is a good decision I think. And it might solidify latino support for democratic senators in states with latino population (Reid in Nevada, Bennet in Colorado, and what about Florida and a potential Meek vs. Rubio race??) In fact, immigration reform might kill the career of John McCain who might be facing a terrible challenge from extreme conservative J.D. Hayworth. The Dems need to find their Kendrick Meek of Arizona because there is an opportunity.
In other news, Gale Norton of Colorado is declaring health-care reform unconstitutional...just another evidence of the strength of the teabagger movement. Rand Paul is doing good against Trey Grayson, but I just can't see him as a senator. The Dems should nominate Lt. Gov. Conway who is the right hand of still somewhat popular democratic governor Steve Beshear (popular governors are a rarity nowadays...) and get that seat. Daniel Mongiardo would not be that strong in my opinion.


Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 50 50 -0,5
Barbara Boxer, California 0 100 0
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
(Chris Dodd), Connecticut 80 20 -0,2
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 70 30 -0,3
(Charles LeMieux), Florida 30 70 +0,3
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 80 20 -0,2
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 10 90 +0,1
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 30 70 +0,3
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 60 40 -0,4
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 50 50 +0,5
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
(Byron Dorgan), North Dakota 20 80 -0,8
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +0,6


Senate Ranking:

1. North Dakota (open) new
2. Missouri (open) -1
3. Kentucky (open) +1
4. Arkansas (Lincoln) -1
5. Ohio (open) +1
6. Nevada (Reid) +1
7. Florida (open) +6
8. Delaware (open) +2
9. North Carolina (Burr) -1
10. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
11. Colorado (Bennet) +1
12. Illinois (open) -1
13. Connecticut (open) -8
14. Pennsylvania (Specter) -
15. Arizona (McCain) +1
16. Iowa (Grassley) -1

I've added a 16th slot to show the last seat currently in play, too. I don't think that any of the other races has got potential (barring a surprise retirement ;-)). It's also somewhat embarassing to still end up with democratic gains. But I guess the difference here is that I am not afraid of a Toomey challenge in Pennsylvania. And I don't think that Mark Kirk is a 50-50 in Illinois. If I'd change my opinion, I'd come to the conclusion that 2010 is a wash... that is still ok-ish for the democrats I guess. But as the recruitment process is coming to a close (well... we're STILL waiting for Beau Biden....and J.D.Hayworth, Richard Blumenthal and John Hoeven) we end up with a level playing field. The democrats will have to fight to keep their majority and these recent days should have given them the necessary signs. There is not much left to improve for either party. The dems could have come up with a better challenger in North Carolina. Mike Huckabee would have been the best challenger in Arkansas and such... but realistically, we're pretty much looking at the starting field now (you can't expect Harry Reid to drop out, or, Lincoln getting replaced by ...insanely popular Governor Mike Beebe? Bill Clinton? Nah...)


Update: Ah, while I wrote this post, Richard Blumenthal announced his candidacy. Now, that seat is almost safe. I'll wait for PPP to publish their Blumenthal-Simmons matchup but I guess I can take that seat off the list soon.

Senate predictions - September 2009

This month saw several small developments but none of them managed to really shake up a race. Maybe the most signifacnt development was the announcement of Charles Melancon to challenge David Vitter - but this was already a possibility last month. Harry Reid and Richard Burr still poll badly, but without a challenger nothing will change... Blanche Lincoln probably needs to start worrying that all her campaign money won't be enough since she polls even against Republican no-name challengers. In New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte has decided to run as a social conservative - she probably has to because of a primary challenge, but it will harm her in the general election.



Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 70 30 -0,3
Barbara Boxer, California 0 100 0
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 70 30 -0,3
(Charles LeMieux), Florida 20 80 +0,2
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 80 20 -0,2
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 10 90 +0,1
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 30 70 +0,3
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 20 80 +0,2
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 100 0 0
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 30 70 +0,3
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +1,8

Senate Ranking:

1. Missouri (open) -
2. New Hampshire (open) +1
3. Ohio (open) -1
4. Kentucky (open) -
5. Connecticut (Dodd) -
6. Texas (open) -
7. Delaware (open) -
8. Arkansas (Lincoln) +6
9. Louisiana (Vitter) -
10. Illinois (open) -
11. Nevada (Reid) -
12. Colorado (Bennett) -
13. North Carolina -5
14. Florida (open) -1
15. Iowa (Grassley) new

Possibility of reconciliation/health care bill with 50 votes

An estimate of the possible vote count if the Democrats try to get health-care reform done via reconciliation. I assume that the final bill will contain a weak public option that only a limited number of people can buy into. It would be similar to the compromise that was achieved in the House (the one backed by the Blue Dogs).
It is also assumed that all Republican Senators will vote with no except for Senators Snowe, Collins and Isakson.

Republicans:
Senator % yes/no/abstain
Collins 30/70/0
Snowe 50/50/0
Isakson 10/90/0

Republican votes for bill: 0,9
Republican votes against bill: 2,1


Democrats:
Senator % yes/no/abstain
Akaka 100/0/0
Inouye 100/0/0
Begich 80/20/0
Cantwell 90/10/0
Murray 100/0/0
Merkley 100/0/0
Wyden 80/20/0
Feinstein 100/0/0
Boxer 100/0/0
Reid 100/0/0
Baucus 80/20/0
Tester 90/10/0
Conrad 10/90/0
Dorgan 70/30/0
Johnson 80/20/0
Nelson (Neb.) 50/50/0
Udall (Col.) 100/0/0
Bennet 90/10/0
Bingaman 100/0/0
Udall (N.M.) 100/0/0
Klobuchar 90/10/0
Franken 100/0/0
Harkin 100/0/0
McCaskill 90/10/0
Landrieu 20/80/0
Lincoln 20/80/0
Pryor 30/70/0
Burris 100/0/0
Durbin 100/0/0
Feingold 90/10/0
Kohl 100/0/0
Levin 100/0/0
Stabenow 100/0/0
Bayh 70/30/0
Brown 100/0/0
Byrd 60/20/20
Rockefeller 100/0/0
Nelson (Florida) 80/20/0
Hagan 50/50/0
Webb 80/20/0
Warner 70/30/0
Mikulski 100/0/0
Cardin 100/0/0
Carper 60/40/0
Kaufman 100/0/0
Specter 90/10/0
Casey 100/0/0
Menendez 100/0/0
Lautenberg 100/0/0
Schumer 100/0/0
Gillibrand 100/0/0
Lieberman 40/60/0
Dodd 100/0/0
Whitehouse 100/0/0
Reed 100/0/0
Kennedy 50/0/50
Kerry 100/0/0
Leahy 100/0/0
Sanders 100/0/0
Shaheen 100/0/0

Democratic votes for: 51
Democratic votes against: 8,3
Democratic abstentions: 0,7

Endresult:
For the bill: 51 + 0,9 = 51,9
Against the bill: 8,3 + 2,1 + 37 = 47,4
Abstentions: 0,7

Endresult: 52-47-1


So I'd say that such a bill has got the potential to pass although it will be close. Maybe a few concessions to certain states could buy especially decisive votes, like Ben Nelson or Olympia Snowe, Senators who will be, once again, at the center-stage of this debate.

Senate predictions - July/August

Since I couldn't manage to make a list for July, we have 2 months of developments in just one update. The Republican position has improved since May. Their "all-men-on-board" approach is doing its best to prevent another Democratic wave election in the Senate, even though that means a loss of talent elsewhere. For example, Mark Kirk is the only viable republican candidate in the Senate in Illinois, and he runs. Mike Castle would be the only one in Delaware, but I wonder if he still wants to run, after his recent encounter with his birther base. I don't know.... I get the feeling that the 2010 election is mounting up to be a last-stand election. After that, the Republicans have to go through a severe reform process.
Anyway, for now they are not looking THAT bad. Sen. Bunning is going to retire, that's helping, too. And who knows, maybe New Hampshire AG Kelly Aiotte can mount an effective campaign against Paul Hodes.
A lot depends on the status of the Obama presidency, especially the races in the swing states, Florida, Ohio, Missouri.... That's why there's still a lot of uncertainty in some races.


Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 70 30 -0,3
(Mel Martinez), Florida 20 80 +0,2
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 80 20 -0,2
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 0 100 0
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 50 50 +0,5
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 100 0 0
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 30 70 +0,3
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +1,6

I've realized that only minor changes were necessary. For example, Charlie Melancon's candidacy in Louisiana is countered by the possibility of Bobby Jindal jumping into the race (noone wants to be a governor right now...). Also, I had already expected some of the developments, and there's not much that shocked me. I considered pushing the Democrats to 60% in Ohio after several similar polls, showing Portman behind Fisher AND Brunner, but too much depends on the state of the economy. I had Kentucky as a 50:50 before, and a Grayson vs. Conway race will be just that.


Senate Ranking:

1. Missouri (open) -
2. Ohio (open) +2
3. New Hampshire (open) -1
4. Kentucky (open) -1
5. Connecticut (Dodd) -
6. Texas (open) +2
7. Delaware (open) +3
8. North Carolina (Burr) -2
9. Lousiana (Vitter) +3
10. Illinois (open) new
11. Nevada (Reid) -2
12. Colorado (Bennett) -1
13. Florida (open) -6
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) -
15. Arizona (McCain) -2

Republican improvements in New Hampshire and Connecticut benefit the Ohio race, and the Delaware race continues to climb (maybe I underestimated the potential at the beginning - still, it's more a benefit of Mike Castle being in the news, while the other races, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas are suspiciously quiet....). The Florida race has dropped by a lot, I can't really quantify it, and maybe it should be higher because of all the endorsements Marco Rubio is getting, but things should go well for Crist....

Sonia Sotomayor - will she be confirmed?

First answer: yes!

By the time she is going to be confirmed, Al Franken will most likely be a sitting Senator. That means that the Democrats have 60 votes at their disposal, theoretically. Ben Nelson has said that he is open to a filibuster, Blanche Lincoln also said that she doesn't automatically confirm the hispanic judge. Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu are not facing re-election this year, so I guess they are relatively safe votes in Sotomayor's favor.

That means that there are about 55 safe Democratic votes for Sotomayor.
The chances of confirmation by the few Democratic exceptions stand at:
Ben Nelson 60% (+0,6)
Blanche Lincoln 70% (+0,7)
Al Franken 80% (+0,8 - a small chance that he is not confirmed at that time)
Mark Pryor 90% (+0,9)
Mary Landrieu 90% (+0,9)
Total: 55 + 3,9 = 58,9 Democratic "yes" votes.


The Republican abilities to vote against her confirmation are severely limited by electoral calculations. Some Senators simply cannot affort to disenfranchise hispanic voters, either out of consideration for the whole party or out of personal consideration of their future. Additionally, Sonia Sotomayor was originally appointed to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York by President George H.W.Bush. Some of the current Republican Senators already voted to confirm her back then. The same happened again with her confirmation to the U.S. court of appeals in 1997 by Bill Clinton. Additionally, many Republicans cannot legitimately claim a right to filibuster a judge since they rejected that position during the Bush administration.
So the likelihood of a vote against Sotomayor's confirmation is impacted by:
- the partisan make-up of the state of said Senator (as always)
- personal preferences
- percentage of hispanic population in the state
- position on Sotomayor's earlier confirmations
- position on up-and-down vote of judicial nominees

Now, let's list all the Republican Senators and their likelihood of voting "nay"

Alexander 60% (+0,6)
Barrasso 80% (+0,8)
Bennett 40% (+0,4)
Bond 60% (+0,6)
Brownback 90% (+0,9)
Bunning 90% (+0,9)
Burr 50% (+0,5)
Chambliss 100% (+1)
Coburn 100% (+1)
Cochran 60% (+0,6)
Collins 30% (+0,3)
Corker 70% (+0,7)
Cornyn 70% (+0,7)
Crapo 100% (+1,0)
DeMint 100% (+1,0)
Ensign 60% (+0,6)
Enzi 100% (+1,0)
Graham 50% (+0,5)
Grassley 80% (+0,8)
Gregg 50% (+0,5)
Hatch 40% (+0,4)
Hutchison 60% (+0,6)
Inhofe 100% (+1)
Isakson 80% (+0,8)
Johanns 90% (+0,9)
Kyl 80% (+0,8)
Lugar 40% (+0,4)
Martinez 40% (+0,4)
McCain 50% (+0,5)
McConnell 80% (+0,8)
Murkowski 80% (+0,8)
Risch 100% (+1)
Roberts 100% (+1)
Sessions 100% (+1)
Shelby 100% (+1)
Snowe 20% (+0,2)
Thune 100% (+1)
Vitter 100% (+1)
Voinovich 80% (+0,8)
Wicker 90% (+0,9)

Total: 29,8 votes

Combine these 29,8 republican "nay" votes with the 1,1 Democratic "nay" votes (5,0-3,9=1,1) and you get a total of 31 votes against Sonia Sotomayor and 69 votes in her favor. I guess there might be a few (one or two) abstentions, so my final prediction is: 68-30.

I didn't have a lot of time in the past 3 weeks, I'll try to post more frequently in the future. Anyway, here's the updated list:


Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 60 40 +0,6
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 70 30 +0,7
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 60 40 +0,6
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +3,3

Some new polls have changed the situation slightly. Chris Dodd is in serious trouble against Rob Simmons. A seat in Connecticut is something the Democrats can't afford to lose, especially since there are enough possible contenders to replace Dodd. If he runs in the general, he will have to rely on people's short memories and the support of the Democratic machine - not impossible, but very hard. Arlen Specter is poised to lose the primary at the moment and the campaigns have already begun with Specter's first anti-Toomey ad. I also think that Specter's rejection of EFCA is not going to help his chances in a general election, so the seat might be slipping out of the Republicans' hands.
In New Hampshire, Paul Hodes leads in a hypothetical matchup against his strongest opponent, ex-Senator John Sununu (almost a quasi-incumbent). It is looking really good for him. Jim Bunning's situation remains essentially unchanged and pessimistic. Richard Burr shows signs of vulnerability. His approval rating is below 50%. The strongest Democratic challenger, Roy Cooper, would have a good chance at beating him, but he needs to enter first. Even if he doesn't, Burr will have to fight for his reelection.


Senate Ranking
1. New Hampshire (open) -
2. Kentucky (Bunning) -
3. Pennsylvania (Specter) +5
4. Missouri (open) -1
5. Ohio (open) -1
6. Florida (open) -1
7. Connecticut (Dodd) +5
8. North Carolina (Burr) -2
9. Nevada (Reid) -1
10. Colorado (Bennett) -1
11. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
12. Iowa (Grassley) -1
13. (Texas - open) -
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) -
15. Illinois (Burris) -

Senate predictions - March

I plan to update my predictions as close as possible to the 1st day of a new month.

Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 80 20 -0,2
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 90 10 -0,1
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 60 40 +0,6
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 30 70 +0,3
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,9

I just heard the news of Kathleen Sebelius nomination. That makes the Kansas seat completely safe for the GOP. A Dorgan vs. Hoeven match in North Dakota is also getting unlikely. A recent R2000 poll showed that Dorgan would beat Hoeven by a mile, not because Hoeven is unpopular, but because North Dakotans want him to stay right where he is, in the governor's mansion. I had almost lowered Bunning's chances to 30% after his kamikaze threat, but I am not quite there yet. Still, Bunning is essentially bankrupt and unpopular (and erratic). If things don't change it's looking pretty grim for him and the Republicans that cannot put up a primary challenger if they want to keep their 41st seat. Actually, barring a major change of trajectory, the seats in Kentucky and New Hampshire are moving into Democratic territory (because the Republicans don't have a first-tier candidate that could face their opponent. Missouri is a different case, by the way.) and I will gradually change my projection.
I also made some other changes, caused by the vote on Obama's stimulus bill and the decreasing chance that some of these candidates have to face credible primary challengers (Lincoln, Burr), so the ranking and the probability is synchronized again. Oh, and it seems that David Vitter is going to have a relatively hard time. There are rumors of a (serious) primary challenge, of a credible democratic challenger, and of course Stormy Daniels.
Although the trouble doesn't end for Roland Burris, the seat in Illinois is looking very safe for the Democrats, now that Obama's basketball pal Alexi Giannoulias has announced his bid for the seat.

Senate Ranking (after stimulus bill compromise)
1. New Hampshire (open) -
2. Kentucky (Bunning) +2
3. Missouri (open) -1
4. Ohio (open) -1
5. Florida (open) -
6. North Carolina (Burr) +2
7. Pennsylvania (Specter) +2
8. Nevada (Reid) -2
9. Colorado (Bennett) -
10. Louisiana (Vitter) new
11. Iowa (Grassley) -
12. Connecticut (Dodd) new
13. (Texas - open) new
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) new
15. Illinois (Burris) -2

Senate Stimulus Bill - vote calculation

Just an experiment... it's the second edition of the calculation.

Safe Democratic "yea" votes: 53

Likelihood of "yea" on Democratic side:
Evan Bayh: 80%
Blanche Lincoln: 90%
Ben Nelson: 70%
Jon Tester: 90%
Al Franken (not there )
Ted Kennedy: 80% (abstain 20%)

Total: 4,1 votes = 57,1 votes


Safe Republican "nay" votes: 33

Likelihood of "nay" on Republican side:

Jim Bunning: 90% (abstain: 10%)
Susan Collins: 50% (abstain: 10%)
Judd Gregg: 0% (abstain 100%)
Lisa Murkowski: 90%
Olympia Snowe: 30%
Arlen Specter: 60%
George Voinovich: 70%
Kai Bailey Hutchison: 90%

Total: 4,8 votes = 37,8

Possible democratic "nay" votes: 0,7 (37,8 + 0,7 = 38,5)
Possible republican "yea" votes: 1,8 (57,1 + 1,8 = 58,9)

Result: 59-39, 1 abstain + Al Franken not seated

US Senate Predictions - February

February edition.



A few changes: Michael Bennett will not face the strongest Republican challenger, making his seat almost safe.

Kirsten Gillibrand is a perfect pick in my opinion. She will recieve enough support from the Democratic leadership to fend off a primary challenge and Republicans will have no chance to beat her.

Harry Reid's weakness was just momentarily. His seat would be endangered if Reid's leadership were a serious failure, a failure extending beyond technicalities only partisans care about. Seriously, the more boring Reid appears, the less people will care about anything he does. And let's face it, Obama won Nevada by 14%. Anyway, my prediction changed from 70:30 to 80:20, it could be even better for him in a few months.

The biggest change happened in New Hampshire. It seems that moderate Republican Bonnie Newman is going to replace Judd Gregg. She does not intend to run in 2010, making it an open seat. There is just one Republican left who has got a serious chance against Carol Shea-Porter or Paul Hodes, that is John Sununu who just lost against Jeanne Shaheen. Not promising. Paul Hodes is said to announce his candidacy in a week. If that happens, and if there is no primary, Hodes is the clear favorite, making this seat the biggest pick-up chance of the cycle.


Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 70 30 -0,3
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 90 10 -0,1
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 90 10 -0,1
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 10 90 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 30 70 +0,3
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 80 20 -0,2
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 100 0 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 50 50 +0,5
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +3,3


We still need basic information about:
whether Kathleen Sebelius is going to run in Kansas
whether Kay Bailey Hutchison is going to run for governor in Texas (Sarah Palin just endorsed incumbent Perry. Is this a move to keep Hutchison in the Senate?)
whether John Hoeven is going to run against Byron Dorgan, and it gets less likely with each day
whether Blanche Lincoln is going to face a credible opponent.
whether Roy Blunt wins the Republican primary in Missouri, pulling the race back to a toss-up.
whether Charlie Crist is going to run for the seat in Florida... I really can't imagine this to happen

Next month we might also be able to put a few of those 90% races into the 100% column. Many of these races contain a certain chance of a primary challenge against a popular incumbent or potential health problems. Candidacies are usually announced in February or March of the off-cycle year.


Senate Ranking (after stimulus bill compromise)
1. New Hampshire (open)
2. Missouri (open)
3. Ohio (open)
4. Kentucky (Bunning)
5. Florida (open)
6. Nevada (Reid)
7. Kansas (open)
8. North Carolina (Burr)
9. Colorado (Bennett)
10. Pennsylvania (Specter)
11. Iowa (Grassley)
12. Arizona (McCain)
13. Illinois (Burris)