Senate predictions - May

Sigh.... busy with work at the moment... better times are going to come by June...

Anyway... lots of things happened in April. The fundraising for the first quarter has been released and Arlen Specter switched to the Democrats, sending SHOCKWAVES throughout the political world. Maybe this switch has made Jim Bunning realize that there is no space for his ego as he has apparently "endorsed" the exploratory commitee of Kentucky SoS and personal friend Trey Grayson. Grayson is more popular than Bunning, but he is just as popular as the best democratic challenger Jack Conway. So the race moves back into the toss-up category.
Also, John McCain gets a primary challenger with Chris Simcox, basically a one-issue candidacy against McCain's stance on immigration. It is a somewhat dangerous challenge, we have to see if the Republican base is just as tired of McCain as they were of Specter, that is, if the anti-incumbency mood is stronger that electoral considerations.
Specter's switch changes the situation in Pennsylvania, of course. The seat will most probably remain democratic, even if Rep. Jim Gerlach runs. However, Specter might consider supporting an amended version of EFCA or he will face serious pressure from the left and the unions. Other changes in this month's chart are related to the results of the fundraising.


Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 20 80 +0,2
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 70 30 +0,7
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 90 10 -0,1
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 10 90 +0,1
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,8


Senate Ranking:

1. Missouri (open) +3
2. New Hampshire (open) -1
3. Kentucky (open?) -1
4. Ohio (open) +1
5. Florida (open) +1
6. Connecticut (Dodd) +1
7. North Carolina (Burr) +1
8. Colorado (Bennet) +2
9. Nevada (Reid) -
10. Texas (open) +3
11. Arkansas (Lincoln) +3
12. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
13. Arizona (McCain) new
14. Illinois (Burris) +1
15. Iowa (Grassley) -3


The ranking suffers from the contradiction between vulnerable incumbents and incumbent fundraising advantage. Incumbents like Blanche Lincoln, Harry Reid and Michael Bennet really raised a lot of money, even though they are certainly vulnerable from a polling perspective. Blanche Lincoln is probably going to have 2 republican challengers, but none of them with her fundraising powers. The same is true for Michaee Bennet, and Harry Reid doesn't even have a challenger at the moment.

Missouri moves into the top spot because of Sarah Steelman's incoming primary challenge to Matt Blunt and Blunt's disappointing fundraising numbers, especially in comparison to Robin Carnahan's result. Carnahan has to be regarded as a favorite now.

New Hampshire loses its top position because of Paul Hodes' rather bad fundraising effort. But honestly, I think it is more of a "foregone-conclusion"-effect. There is still no challenger to Hodes.

Kentucky is a pure toss-up at the moment, just like Ohio where Lee Fisher would be a small favorite, but he has a small fundraising disadvantage against Republican candidate Rob Portman. This will allow Portman to catch up in name recognition while Fisher probably has to spend some of his money to defeat or intimidate primary challenger Jennifer Brunner. The Portman/Fisher race is going to be highly competitive.

In Florida, a lot still depends on Charlie Crist. Now that the Republicans have lost their 41st seat, it is somewhat less likely that Crist still runs. And he would probably have to come out against Obama's health care proposal which is going to dominate the political scene this fall. Still, Marco Rubio is a respectable Republican candidate on his own already, even though Rep. Kendrick Meek is enjoying heavy promotion from Bill Clinton which has had a great effect on his campaign account.

North Carolina is still waiting for Roy Cooper's announcement to run for the Senate which would elevate this race into the top ranks. The same is true for the yet-nonexisting Texas race for Kai Bailey Hutchison's seat. Bill White raised a formidable amount of money making him competitive against every possible Republican challenger. But well, the wheels need to start moving first.

US Senate Predictions - February

February edition.



A few changes: Michael Bennett will not face the strongest Republican challenger, making his seat almost safe.

Kirsten Gillibrand is a perfect pick in my opinion. She will recieve enough support from the Democratic leadership to fend off a primary challenge and Republicans will have no chance to beat her.

Harry Reid's weakness was just momentarily. His seat would be endangered if Reid's leadership were a serious failure, a failure extending beyond technicalities only partisans care about. Seriously, the more boring Reid appears, the less people will care about anything he does. And let's face it, Obama won Nevada by 14%. Anyway, my prediction changed from 70:30 to 80:20, it could be even better for him in a few months.

The biggest change happened in New Hampshire. It seems that moderate Republican Bonnie Newman is going to replace Judd Gregg. She does not intend to run in 2010, making it an open seat. There is just one Republican left who has got a serious chance against Carol Shea-Porter or Paul Hodes, that is John Sununu who just lost against Jeanne Shaheen. Not promising. Paul Hodes is said to announce his candidacy in a week. If that happens, and if there is no primary, Hodes is the clear favorite, making this seat the biggest pick-up chance of the cycle.


Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 70 30 -0,3
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 90 10 -0,1
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 90 10 -0,1
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 10 90 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 30 70 +0,3
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Bonnie Newman), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 80 20 -0,2
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 100 0 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 50 50 +0,5
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +3,3


We still need basic information about:
whether Kathleen Sebelius is going to run in Kansas
whether Kay Bailey Hutchison is going to run for governor in Texas (Sarah Palin just endorsed incumbent Perry. Is this a move to keep Hutchison in the Senate?)
whether John Hoeven is going to run against Byron Dorgan, and it gets less likely with each day
whether Blanche Lincoln is going to face a credible opponent.
whether Roy Blunt wins the Republican primary in Missouri, pulling the race back to a toss-up.
whether Charlie Crist is going to run for the seat in Florida... I really can't imagine this to happen

Next month we might also be able to put a few of those 90% races into the 100% column. Many of these races contain a certain chance of a primary challenge against a popular incumbent or potential health problems. Candidacies are usually announced in February or March of the off-cycle year.


Senate Ranking (after stimulus bill compromise)
1. New Hampshire (open)
2. Missouri (open)
3. Ohio (open)
4. Kentucky (Bunning)
5. Florida (open)
6. Nevada (Reid)
7. Kansas (open)
8. North Carolina (Burr)
9. Colorado (Bennett)
10. Pennsylvania (Specter)
11. Iowa (Grassley)
12. Arizona (McCain)
13. Illinois (Burris)