Senate predictions - October edition

Hello,

here's the list for October:



Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 60 40 -0,4
Barbara Boxer, California 0 100 0
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 70 30 -0,3
(Charles LeMieux), Florida 20 80 +0,2
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 80 20 -0,2
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 10 90 +0,1
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 30 70 +0,3
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 70 30 -0,3
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 20 80 +0,2
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 100 0 0
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 60 40 +0,6
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 30 70 +0,3
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +1,7

Senate Ranking:

1. Missouri (open) -
2. Ohio (open) +1
3. New Hampshire (open) -1
4. Kentucky (open) -
5. Connecticut (Dodd) -
6. Arkansas (Lincoln) +2
7. Nevada (Reid) +4
8. Texas (open) -2
9. Louisiana (Vitter) -
10. Delaware (open) -3
11. Illinois (open) -1
12. Colorado (Bennett) -
13. North Carolina -
14. Florida (open) -
15. Iowa (Grassley) -


Alright, my idea of the electorate in 2010 is a little friendlier for the Dems than Rasmussen's idea. I, for one, believe that a meaningful health-care reform will pass, either a trigger with 60 democratic votes, or a public option via reconciliation. That's essentially why I think that the current poll numbers for the Dems are a little lower than they will be in 13 months in general. This leads me to more or less disregard the Rasmussen poll that shows Rob Portman head to head with both Lt. Gov. Fisher and SoS Jennifer Brunner, instead I trust the Quinnipiac, Research2000 and PPP polls that show Portman behind both democratic candidates. Maybe the Republicans have a structural disadvantage in the rust belt at the moment. Some poll numbers from Michigan seem to confirm this - as such, I believe that Portman will have a real structural disadvantage. And so this race becomes the 3rd race in my list where the incumbent party is more likely to lose the seat.
My vision of 2010 also gives endangered Democrats something to show for. That's why I am not yet ready to toss Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln and Chris Dodd into damnation. Yet, I made the Nevada and Arkansas races a little more competitive. Once again, Rasmussen's Arkansas numbers are really bad for Lincoln, while Research 2000's numbers aren't really good for her, but her opponents lack name recognition and Lincoln (and Reid) has got a LOT of money and she's also the chairman of the Senate agricultural committee now, which gives her another argument of why Arkansans should keep her. So in some ways she is better off than Reid, on the other hand - it's Arkansas, and it's trending red... we'll see...
I downgraded the Delaware race because I think that, if Mike Castle really wanted to run, he wouldn't wait until Beau Biden is back from Iraq. I mean, it has been clear from the very beginning that Biden will run, and there was no other Democrat in the race. Mike Castle has waited and waited and waited... but if his decision depended on Biden, why would he run ONLY after Biden decided to run? That doesn't make sense, Biden is legitimate candidate with lots of name recognition and a White House boost. He would probably be the strongest Democrat available - so why would Castle wait until he knows that his challenge has become greater? My guess: once Biden is in, Mike Castle is out. If Biden is out, Castle is in - he doesn't want another hard campaign, he has probably thought about retirement and would only run if he got an easy race. Maybe he is also appeasing the Republican congressional leadership.
I continue to believe that Marco Rubio has got a good chance of beating Charlie Crist in the Republican Florida primary, and then Rubio would be a slight favorite against likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. That's how I get to a 20% chance of seat-flipping, that's why the race stays in the list. And finally, Chuck Grassley's numbers have suffered from the health-care debate. It's good that he is on the top 15 already, but we have to see if this slide goes on to justify a change