Senate predictions - December edition

Things are getting gloomy for the Democrats. Bill White of Texas has switched to the gubernatorial race since Senator Hutchisons prospects against Rick Perry are getting worse. She will most probably not resign. Also, with the health care debate coming to a close, Senator Reid's prospects are nearing toss-up territory. He somehow has to sell a moderate bill to his base. And since 2010 will be a base election it will be very hard - but I believe that not passing a bill at all would be worse.
I don't know what to make of Rasmussen's depressing polls (from a democratic perspective). The Lincoln and Dodd polls are the best examples. These Senators are vulnerable, yes, but probably not as much as Rasmussen suggests. There have been numerous other polls on Sen. Lincoln who at least show her somewhat even to her best challengers. So Rasmussen's continued House-effect/bias/whatever somewhat devalues their results for me.
Yesterday had 2 new polls on the generic ballot, with the Democrats still being on top. The advantage is decreasing however, just like Obamas favorability who is now barely in positive territory on pollster.com. On the other hand, we might finally have job growth in December (holiday season?). While I can imagine that the January and February numbers will be worse again, the light at the end of the tunnel is visible now. So in some ways, 2010 is a race against time. Will the economic recovery kick in fast enough? That would make independents vote for Democrats. However, there is almost no doubt anymore that the Republican base will be more excited than the Democratic base. Luckily, the Republican base is rather small.
There isn't much big news on the recruitment front. Cal Cunningham is going to challenge Richard Burr in North Carolina. That's a good catch. Apart from that, we probably have to wait for the primaries to get some more movement.

Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 0 100 0
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 50 50 -0,5
Barbara Boxer, California 0 100 0
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 70 30 -0,3
(Charles LeMieux), Florida 20 80 +0,2
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 80 20 -0,2
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 10 90 +0,1
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 30 70 +0,3
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 60 40 -0,4
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 100 0 0
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +1,1

Senate Ranking:

1. Missouri (open) -
2. New Hampshire (open) +1
3. Arkansas (Lincoln) +3
4. Kentucky (open) -1
5. Connecticut (Dodd) -
6. Ohio (open) -4
7. Nevada (Reid) -
8. North Carolina (Burr) +5
9. Louisiana (Vitter) -
10. Delaware (open) -
11. Illinois (open) -
12. Colorado (Bennett) -
13. Florida (open) +1
14. Pennsylvania (Specter) new
15. Iowa (Grassley) -1

We have to see the effect of the primaries on the races. For example, Mark Kirk's recent turnaround on climate change and the health-care bill seriously hurt his moderate credentials. The same is true for Mike Castle. Unsurprisingly, both of them have hurt in most recent polls (these polls however are already a few weeks old). Rob Portman has caught up to Lt. Gov. Fisher in Ohio and we have to wait for the economy to recover - but the republican base enthusiasm is a good counterweight. By the way, there are now 15 potentially competetive races. So next month, we might reduce that number even further - which means that I will reduce the top 15 to a top 10.