Senate predictions January 2010

Obviously, the new year starts with a bang. The democratic Senators Dorgan and Dodd are going to retire. However, these retirements have different effects. The dust still needs to settle, but it is very likely that their successors will be Richard Blumenthal and John Hoeven - even though it's not a done deal that either of them actually runs. Still, North Dakota will probably get a republican senator soon, and Connecticut will "probably" get a new democratic senator - simply by the virtue of each state's partisan make-up.
Another interesting story is the retirement of Florida GOP-chair Jim Greer. In my opinion, it is obvious now, that Marco Rubio will beat Charlie Crist who just lost the support of the state GOP apparatus. The possibility of another major upheaval is increasing rapidly: either Crist drops out (tries to stay Gov., against Republican Bill McClollum who is a Jeb Bush republican just like Marco Rubio) or he switches his party affiliation. Now, I am making heavy assumptions here, but in 2008 Crist pulled a marriage out of his hat to become a potential VP prospect. He tried to bolster his bipartisan image by supporting the stimulus, and then regretting, and then confirming it. Crist definitely wants to keep his career. I believe that his best chance is to run as a Democrat. If he ran as an independent he would be in a three-way-race and probably get squeezed by the partisan camps. This is why the Florida race gets another bump. Basically, it is on its way to return to the 50-50 status it was before Crist joined. Rubio has solidifed his position, but Crist might very well take some of his republican loyalists into the democratic camp, as a protest vote against Rubio's extreme course (a.k.a. NY-23 reloaded).

Maybe I should wait another week or so to post the January update, but the times are too interesting to pass up on this opportunity. But we might not have seen the last mayor development.
However, Kirsten Gillibrand's seat is absolutely safe now. I had thought of that before, simply because I didn't believe in Rudy Giuliani's chances. Now Giuliani has agreed with me. Peter King might jump in though he would lose...but what else should he do? He's about to lose his house seat after the caucus.
Some new polls out of New Hampshire contain bad news for Paul Hodes who would lose against either Kelly Ayotte or Avide LaMontagne. In my opinion however, it doesn't change the situation a lot because it only makes a LaMontagne campaign more likely. And the New Hampshirites will not accept a teabagger. His unelectability will get obvious during the campaign. Kelly Ayotte is in a different situation. However, I am going to tell another secret: The teabaggers prefer manly candidates. Carly Fiorina will lose to teabagger Chuck DeVore. Kay Bailey Hutchison is losing to secessionist Rick Perry. The republican voters are male and they prefer their female candidates crazy and unhinged (Palin, Bachmann, Virginia Foxx, Lynn Jenkins etc....). Kelly Ayotte will not have the enthusiasm that is necessary to win a primary in a midterm year. I don't want to say that LaMontagne WILL beat Ayotte, but I say that it is getting more likely.

Something about the fundamental trends: The Dems are in the process of losing support. That was almost inevitable. The governing party loses independents during a recession. So far however, the Republican Party has not been able to improve its own standing among the voters. We are "only" seeing a general anti-establishment wave. That WILL hurt Demcorats more than Republicans, but not as much as a Republican wave hurts them. Michael Steele yesterday basically admitted that the Republicans will not take back the House. That was a dumb thing to say of course, because it doesn't ease the financial problems of the party. But it might lead to a more useful allocation of ressources. The Senate is the best place to block the democratic agenda. It remains to be seen if the financial situation of the republicans will have a general effect on the races but as long as we don't see a wave election the Dems can muddle through.
Muddling through is something the Dems have to do anyway until the economy and especially the job situation recovers. The economy will determine the independent vote.
Current worries about Democratic enthusiasm are justified but they will be somewhat alleviated during the course of the campaign. Jon Corzine of New Jersey caught up to Chris Cristie during the campaign. The enthusiasm gap will decrease and the Republicans don't have a lot of room to grow. So the problem is not as bad as it looks now, although it DOES exist. We don't yet know the full scope of that problem.
I am hearing that immigration reform will be THE issue of 2010. That is a good decision I think. And it might solidify latino support for democratic senators in states with latino population (Reid in Nevada, Bennet in Colorado, and what about Florida and a potential Meek vs. Rubio race??) In fact, immigration reform might kill the career of John McCain who might be facing a terrible challenge from extreme conservative J.D. Hayworth. The Dems need to find their Kendrick Meek of Arizona because there is an opportunity.
In other news, Gale Norton of Colorado is declaring health-care reform unconstitutional...just another evidence of the strength of the teabagger movement. Rand Paul is doing good against Trey Grayson, but I just can't see him as a senator. The Dems should nominate Lt. Gov. Conway who is the right hand of still somewhat popular democratic governor Steve Beshear (popular governors are a rarity nowadays...) and get that seat. Daniel Mongiardo would not be that strong in my opinion.


Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 50 50 -0,5
Barbara Boxer, California 0 100 0
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
(Chris Dodd), Connecticut 80 20 -0,2
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 70 30 -0,3
(Charles LeMieux), Florida 30 70 +0,3
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 80 20 -0,2
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 10 90 +0,1
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 30 70 +0,3
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 60 40 -0,4
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 50 50 +0,5
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
(Byron Dorgan), North Dakota 20 80 -0,8
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +0,6


Senate Ranking:

1. North Dakota (open) new
2. Missouri (open) -1
3. Kentucky (open) +1
4. Arkansas (Lincoln) -1
5. Ohio (open) +1
6. Nevada (Reid) +1
7. Florida (open) +6
8. Delaware (open) +2
9. North Carolina (Burr) -1
10. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
11. Colorado (Bennet) +1
12. Illinois (open) -1
13. Connecticut (open) -8
14. Pennsylvania (Specter) -
15. Arizona (McCain) +1
16. Iowa (Grassley) -1

I've added a 16th slot to show the last seat currently in play, too. I don't think that any of the other races has got potential (barring a surprise retirement ;-)). It's also somewhat embarassing to still end up with democratic gains. But I guess the difference here is that I am not afraid of a Toomey challenge in Pennsylvania. And I don't think that Mark Kirk is a 50-50 in Illinois. If I'd change my opinion, I'd come to the conclusion that 2010 is a wash... that is still ok-ish for the democrats I guess. But as the recruitment process is coming to a close (well... we're STILL waiting for Beau Biden....and J.D.Hayworth, Richard Blumenthal and John Hoeven) we end up with a level playing field. The democrats will have to fight to keep their majority and these recent days should have given them the necessary signs. There is not much left to improve for either party. The dems could have come up with a better challenger in North Carolina. Mike Huckabee would have been the best challenger in Arkansas and such... but realistically, we're pretty much looking at the starting field now (you can't expect Harry Reid to drop out, or, Lincoln getting replaced by ...insanely popular Governor Mike Beebe? Bill Clinton? Nah...)


Update: Ah, while I wrote this post, Richard Blumenthal announced his candidacy. Now, that seat is almost safe. I'll wait for PPP to publish their Blumenthal-Simmons matchup but I guess I can take that seat off the list soon.