First answer: yes!
By the time she is going to be confirmed, Al Franken will most likely be a sitting Senator. That means that the Democrats have 60 votes at their disposal, theoretically. Ben Nelson has said that he is open to a filibuster, Blanche Lincoln also said that she doesn't automatically confirm the hispanic judge. Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu are not facing re-election this year, so I guess they are relatively safe votes in Sotomayor's favor.
That means that there are about 55 safe Democratic votes for Sotomayor.
The chances of confirmation by the few Democratic exceptions stand at:
Ben Nelson 60% (+0,6)
Blanche Lincoln 70% (+0,7)
Al Franken 80% (+0,8 - a small chance that he is not confirmed at that time)
Mark Pryor 90% (+0,9)
Mary Landrieu 90% (+0,9)
Total: 55 + 3,9 = 58,9 Democratic "yes" votes.
The Republican abilities to vote against her confirmation are severely limited by electoral calculations. Some Senators simply cannot affort to disenfranchise hispanic voters, either out of consideration for the whole party or out of personal consideration of their future. Additionally, Sonia Sotomayor was originally appointed to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York by President George H.W.Bush. Some of the current Republican Senators already voted to confirm her back then. The same happened again with her confirmation to the U.S. court of appeals in 1997 by Bill Clinton. Additionally, many Republicans cannot legitimately claim a right to filibuster a judge since they rejected that position during the Bush administration.
So the likelihood of a vote against Sotomayor's confirmation is impacted by:
- the partisan make-up of the state of said Senator (as always)
- personal preferences
- percentage of hispanic population in the state
- position on Sotomayor's earlier confirmations
- position on up-and-down vote of judicial nominees
Now, let's list all the Republican Senators and their likelihood of voting "nay"
Alexander 60% (+0,6)
Barrasso 80% (+0,8)
Bennett 40% (+0,4)
Bond 60% (+0,6)
Brownback 90% (+0,9)
Bunning 90% (+0,9)
Burr 50% (+0,5)
Chambliss 100% (+1)
Coburn 100% (+1)
Cochran 60% (+0,6)
Collins 30% (+0,3)
Corker 70% (+0,7)
Cornyn 70% (+0,7)
Crapo 100% (+1,0)
DeMint 100% (+1,0)
Ensign 60% (+0,6)
Enzi 100% (+1,0)
Graham 50% (+0,5)
Grassley 80% (+0,8)
Gregg 50% (+0,5)
Hatch 40% (+0,4)
Hutchison 60% (+0,6)
Inhofe 100% (+1)
Isakson 80% (+0,8)
Johanns 90% (+0,9)
Kyl 80% (+0,8)
Lugar 40% (+0,4)
Martinez 40% (+0,4)
McCain 50% (+0,5)
McConnell 80% (+0,8)
Murkowski 80% (+0,8)
Risch 100% (+1)
Roberts 100% (+1)
Sessions 100% (+1)
Shelby 100% (+1)
Snowe 20% (+0,2)
Thune 100% (+1)
Vitter 100% (+1)
Voinovich 80% (+0,8)
Wicker 90% (+0,9)
Total: 29,8 votes
Combine these 29,8 republican "nay" votes with the 1,1 Democratic "nay" votes (5,0-3,9=1,1) and you get a total of 31 votes against Sonia Sotomayor and 69 votes in her favor. I guess there might be a few (one or two) abstentions, so my final prediction is: 68-30.
Monday 1 June 2009
Senate predictions - June
Time for new Senate rankings!
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 20 80 +0,2
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 80 20 -0,2
(Mel Martinez), Florida 70 30 +0,3
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 10 90 +0,1
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 70 30 +0,7
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 100 0 0
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 10 90 +0,1
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 30 70 +0,3
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,6
Senate Ranking:
1. Missouri (open) -
2. New Hampshire (open) -
3. Kentucky (Bunning) -
4. Ohio (open) -
5. Connecticut (Dodd) +1
6. North Carolina (Burr) +1
7. Florida (open) -2
8. Texas (open) +2
9. Nevada (Reid) -
10. Delaware (open) +6
11. Colorado (Bennet) -3
12. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
13. Arizona (McCain) -
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) -3
15. Oklahoma (open?) new
There were a few big announcements last month, Crist's run for the Senate and Roy Cooper's decision not to do the same in North Carolina. Ironically, the North Carolina race moved up even further in my ranking, even though the likelihood of a seat change has decreased. Well... I still think that Burr is very vulnerable, and Heath Shuler is reconsidering a run. But Cooper was the Democrats' best chance of getting that seat. We have to see if there is another major development in this race. If not, it's going to drop a lot. Florida has already dropped. I think it's possible that Rubio defeats Charlie Crist in a primary, especially if he is backed by the Jeb Bush-camp (and Huckabee's evangelical support doesn't hurt either). Also, the midterm elections will give a boost to the more partisan primary candidates and their more active supporters. Still, Crist would be a heavy favorite in the general election against presumable Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. In any case, the republican primary will be interesting to watch, it's the kind of primary we didn't get in Pennsylvania.
At the top of the ranking, everything stays the same. Carnahan is the best possible candidate in the Missouri race, no matter which Republican runs. Paul Hodes continues to be the only candidate in New Hampshire. Jim Bunning is still not retiring.... Dodd is somewhat rebounding and getting heavy boosts from Obama. Time will tell if the anti-Dodd sentiment is going to prevail. Texas moves to a new record standing, mainly because other races with a similar likelihood of change are getting less interesting, and that Texas seat is still looking like a real battle, once it is open. On the other hand, Blanche Lincoln will not face Tim Griffin, Reid and Bennet continue to poll badly but don't face serious challengers, and Chuck Grassley is not retiring either.
These minor changes in probability also affect the open race for the Delaware Senate seat - a race without any candidate at all so far! Mike Castle hasn't decided yet and might be waiting for the return of Beau Biden and his reception (Biden's standing will depend on the standing of the Obama government like noone else). No other Republican has a chance to win, and no Democrat wants to piss off the Vice President by jumping in.
I wonder if the nomination of Sotomayor is creating any trouble for Sen. McCain. I guess he has to reject her because of his anti-immigrant challenger. That would severe his relatively good ties with hispanics and make a Democratic challenge more promising. But who is going to run?
At the very end, the Oklahoma seat makes a first entrance into the ranking, but it might very well be the only appearance, since Tom Coburn is going to announce his plans for the future today. If he retires, Democrats have 2 very good candidates, but since it's Oklahoma, even that might not be enough. If Coburn doesn't retire, the seat is his.
Taken all together, the Republicans enjoy a breath of fresh air after a series of misfortunes. They can continue their good streak by recruiting Mike Castle and Bob Beauprez. However, their improved outlook comes at a price of moderation. Charlie Crist and Mike Castle would be fairly moderate Senators, voting with the Democrats maybe half of the time or so. They'd gain more support for their agenda from Delaware, but they'd lose some in Florida. And since the Democrats already have their 60 seats, these new Republican senators would merely counter the conservative Democrats Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu.
If you pointed a gun at my head, I'd say that Carnahan, Hodes, Conway and Fisher flip their seats, and Castle wins the Delaware seat if he runs. The Republicans "should" be focussing on Nevada and Colorado, since they can change the partisan makeup of the Senate much more in these states than in New Hampshire or Florida (with Crist). At best (for Republicans), the 2010 elections will be a draw, with Carnahan winning in Missouri, Castle winning in Delaware, the Democrats picking up one seat ...somewhere.... (NH, OH, KT) and the Republicans also picking up one seat ...somewhere... (CO, NV, CT).
Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems
Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 20 80 +0,2
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 80 20 -0,2
(Mel Martinez), Florida 70 30 +0,3
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 90 10 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 10 90 +0,1
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 70 30 +0,7
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 100 0 0
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 10 90 +0,1
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 30 70 +0,3
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0
Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,6
Senate Ranking:
1. Missouri (open) -
2. New Hampshire (open) -
3. Kentucky (Bunning) -
4. Ohio (open) -
5. Connecticut (Dodd) +1
6. North Carolina (Burr) +1
7. Florida (open) -2
8. Texas (open) +2
9. Nevada (Reid) -
10. Delaware (open) +6
11. Colorado (Bennet) -3
12. Louisiana (Vitter) -1
13. Arizona (McCain) -
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) -3
15. Oklahoma (open?) new
There were a few big announcements last month, Crist's run for the Senate and Roy Cooper's decision not to do the same in North Carolina. Ironically, the North Carolina race moved up even further in my ranking, even though the likelihood of a seat change has decreased. Well... I still think that Burr is very vulnerable, and Heath Shuler is reconsidering a run. But Cooper was the Democrats' best chance of getting that seat. We have to see if there is another major development in this race. If not, it's going to drop a lot. Florida has already dropped. I think it's possible that Rubio defeats Charlie Crist in a primary, especially if he is backed by the Jeb Bush-camp (and Huckabee's evangelical support doesn't hurt either). Also, the midterm elections will give a boost to the more partisan primary candidates and their more active supporters. Still, Crist would be a heavy favorite in the general election against presumable Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. In any case, the republican primary will be interesting to watch, it's the kind of primary we didn't get in Pennsylvania.
At the top of the ranking, everything stays the same. Carnahan is the best possible candidate in the Missouri race, no matter which Republican runs. Paul Hodes continues to be the only candidate in New Hampshire. Jim Bunning is still not retiring.... Dodd is somewhat rebounding and getting heavy boosts from Obama. Time will tell if the anti-Dodd sentiment is going to prevail. Texas moves to a new record standing, mainly because other races with a similar likelihood of change are getting less interesting, and that Texas seat is still looking like a real battle, once it is open. On the other hand, Blanche Lincoln will not face Tim Griffin, Reid and Bennet continue to poll badly but don't face serious challengers, and Chuck Grassley is not retiring either.
These minor changes in probability also affect the open race for the Delaware Senate seat - a race without any candidate at all so far! Mike Castle hasn't decided yet and might be waiting for the return of Beau Biden and his reception (Biden's standing will depend on the standing of the Obama government like noone else). No other Republican has a chance to win, and no Democrat wants to piss off the Vice President by jumping in.
I wonder if the nomination of Sotomayor is creating any trouble for Sen. McCain. I guess he has to reject her because of his anti-immigrant challenger. That would severe his relatively good ties with hispanics and make a Democratic challenge more promising. But who is going to run?
At the very end, the Oklahoma seat makes a first entrance into the ranking, but it might very well be the only appearance, since Tom Coburn is going to announce his plans for the future today. If he retires, Democrats have 2 very good candidates, but since it's Oklahoma, even that might not be enough. If Coburn doesn't retire, the seat is his.
Taken all together, the Republicans enjoy a breath of fresh air after a series of misfortunes. They can continue their good streak by recruiting Mike Castle and Bob Beauprez. However, their improved outlook comes at a price of moderation. Charlie Crist and Mike Castle would be fairly moderate Senators, voting with the Democrats maybe half of the time or so. They'd gain more support for their agenda from Delaware, but they'd lose some in Florida. And since the Democrats already have their 60 seats, these new Republican senators would merely counter the conservative Democrats Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu.
If you pointed a gun at my head, I'd say that Carnahan, Hodes, Conway and Fisher flip their seats, and Castle wins the Delaware seat if he runs. The Republicans "should" be focussing on Nevada and Colorado, since they can change the partisan makeup of the Senate much more in these states than in New Hampshire or Florida (with Crist). At best (for Republicans), the 2010 elections will be a draw, with Carnahan winning in Missouri, Castle winning in Delaware, the Democrats picking up one seat ...somewhere.... (NH, OH, KT) and the Republicans also picking up one seat ...somewhere... (CO, NV, CT).
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