Senate predictions - September 2009

This month saw several small developments but none of them managed to really shake up a race. Maybe the most signifacnt development was the announcement of Charles Melancon to challenge David Vitter - but this was already a possibility last month. Harry Reid and Richard Burr still poll badly, but without a challenger nothing will change... Blanche Lincoln probably needs to start worrying that all her campaign money won't be enough since she polls even against Republican no-name challengers. In New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte has decided to run as a social conservative - she probably has to because of a primary challenge, but it will harm her in the general election.



Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 70 30 -0,3
Barbara Boxer, California 0 100 0
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 70 30 -0,3
(Charles LeMieux), Florida 20 80 +0,2
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 80 20 -0,2
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 10 90 +0,1
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 30 70 +0,3
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 20 80 +0,2
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 100 0 0
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 30 70 +0,3
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +1,8

Senate Ranking:

1. Missouri (open) -
2. New Hampshire (open) +1
3. Ohio (open) -1
4. Kentucky (open) -
5. Connecticut (Dodd) -
6. Texas (open) -
7. Delaware (open) -
8. Arkansas (Lincoln) +6
9. Louisiana (Vitter) -
10. Illinois (open) -
11. Nevada (Reid) -
12. Colorado (Bennett) -
13. North Carolina -5
14. Florida (open) -1
15. Iowa (Grassley) new