Senate predictions - September 2009

This month saw several small developments but none of them managed to really shake up a race. Maybe the most signifacnt development was the announcement of Charles Melancon to challenge David Vitter - but this was already a possibility last month. Harry Reid and Richard Burr still poll badly, but without a challenger nothing will change... Blanche Lincoln probably needs to start worrying that all her campaign money won't be enough since she polls even against Republican no-name challengers. In New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte has decided to run as a social conservative - she probably has to because of a primary challenge, but it will harm her in the general election.



Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 70 30 -0,3
Barbara Boxer, California 0 100 0
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 70 30 -0,3
(Charles LeMieux), Florida 20 80 +0,2
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 80 20 -0,2
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 10 90 +0,1
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 30 70 +0,3
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 60 40 +0,6
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 20 80 +0,2
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 100 0 0
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 30 70 +0,3
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +1,8

Senate Ranking:

1. Missouri (open) -
2. New Hampshire (open) +1
3. Ohio (open) -1
4. Kentucky (open) -
5. Connecticut (Dodd) -
6. Texas (open) -
7. Delaware (open) -
8. Arkansas (Lincoln) +6
9. Louisiana (Vitter) -
10. Illinois (open) -
11. Nevada (Reid) -
12. Colorado (Bennett) -
13. North Carolina -5
14. Florida (open) -1
15. Iowa (Grassley) new

Possibility of reconciliation/health care bill with 50 votes

An estimate of the possible vote count if the Democrats try to get health-care reform done via reconciliation. I assume that the final bill will contain a weak public option that only a limited number of people can buy into. It would be similar to the compromise that was achieved in the House (the one backed by the Blue Dogs).
It is also assumed that all Republican Senators will vote with no except for Senators Snowe, Collins and Isakson.

Republicans:
Senator % yes/no/abstain
Collins 30/70/0
Snowe 50/50/0
Isakson 10/90/0

Republican votes for bill: 0,9
Republican votes against bill: 2,1


Democrats:
Senator % yes/no/abstain
Akaka 100/0/0
Inouye 100/0/0
Begich 80/20/0
Cantwell 90/10/0
Murray 100/0/0
Merkley 100/0/0
Wyden 80/20/0
Feinstein 100/0/0
Boxer 100/0/0
Reid 100/0/0
Baucus 80/20/0
Tester 90/10/0
Conrad 10/90/0
Dorgan 70/30/0
Johnson 80/20/0
Nelson (Neb.) 50/50/0
Udall (Col.) 100/0/0
Bennet 90/10/0
Bingaman 100/0/0
Udall (N.M.) 100/0/0
Klobuchar 90/10/0
Franken 100/0/0
Harkin 100/0/0
McCaskill 90/10/0
Landrieu 20/80/0
Lincoln 20/80/0
Pryor 30/70/0
Burris 100/0/0
Durbin 100/0/0
Feingold 90/10/0
Kohl 100/0/0
Levin 100/0/0
Stabenow 100/0/0
Bayh 70/30/0
Brown 100/0/0
Byrd 60/20/20
Rockefeller 100/0/0
Nelson (Florida) 80/20/0
Hagan 50/50/0
Webb 80/20/0
Warner 70/30/0
Mikulski 100/0/0
Cardin 100/0/0
Carper 60/40/0
Kaufman 100/0/0
Specter 90/10/0
Casey 100/0/0
Menendez 100/0/0
Lautenberg 100/0/0
Schumer 100/0/0
Gillibrand 100/0/0
Lieberman 40/60/0
Dodd 100/0/0
Whitehouse 100/0/0
Reed 100/0/0
Kennedy 50/0/50
Kerry 100/0/0
Leahy 100/0/0
Sanders 100/0/0
Shaheen 100/0/0

Democratic votes for: 51
Democratic votes against: 8,3
Democratic abstentions: 0,7

Endresult:
For the bill: 51 + 0,9 = 51,9
Against the bill: 8,3 + 2,1 + 37 = 47,4
Abstentions: 0,7

Endresult: 52-47-1


So I'd say that such a bill has got the potential to pass although it will be close. Maybe a few concessions to certain states could buy especially decisive votes, like Ben Nelson or Olympia Snowe, Senators who will be, once again, at the center-stage of this debate.