Here's another popular prediction game to play. Who will be the republican challenger for the presidency? I am assuming that the USA will have somewhat recovered by then (if not, we're in serious trouble and predictions would get pretty hard), so Obama will easily get the democratic nomination.
Several aspects have to be considered: the candidates - of course, the party structure, the primary election system, polls, and other minor factors.
The Republican Party changed their primary system. They will divide the states into three tiers, early states, small states and big states. So all the traditional early states will vote at the same time: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada. These states can give the winner a lot of momentum so we have to prefer candidates that can do well in these states.
We also have to follow the way the Republican Party is going. Will they go back to their conservative roots, that is, becoming even more conservative, or will we see a move to the center? At the moment by the way, I'd say it's the former, but it's not impossible that this is going to change at some point.
We're also getting the first polls now. The CPAC straw poll for example, showed a wide field of candidates, with Mitt Romney getting the most votes (but only 20%). A similar CNN poll a few days ago, saw Sarah Palin at the top, with Romney and Huckabee close behind, Jindal a distant 4th. But it's also very early, so the polls don't tell much yet.
At the beginning, I will give a list of the potential candidates (in my opinion) and make a few remarks about their chances in general:
Former governor Mitt Romney: As governor of Massachusetts, he proved that he could work across the aisle and he wasn't the hardcore conservative he tried to be during the 2008 primaries. There is some genuine appeal to him that seems to attract moderate republicans, pro-small business republicans, libertarians and hispanics. In fact, he has a natural appeal to every republican but the core republicans, and that's his problem. He has serious relevance problems. He needs to stay in the public eye and he needs to define his brand which is almost destroyed by his pandering. As a mormon, he can probably do whatever he wants, he will not win every single evangelical and further pandering will only hurt him. He is trying to build an intra-party network now by giving money to friendly congressmen. It reminds me of Nixon's post 1962-strategy to stay relevant. But Romney is going to collide with other Republicans there.
Former governor Mike Huckabee: As governor of Arkansas, he proved that he could work across the aisle and he wasn't the hardcore conserva... wait.... Well, Huckabee raised taxes, he isn't your ordinary fiscal conservative, but of course, he is a social conservative, probably THE social conservative in the field. He truly believes in what he says, and I suspect that this is why the republican establishment never really supported him. He is an honest man, with stern beliefs and that makes him one of the most popular republicans, with people that are no republicans. He is a good campaigner with a platform (his show on Fox News) so we can expect him to stay in the public eye for a while. Still, some very important conservative voices, Grover Norquist and every Republican who is against the strong emphasis on social conservatism, is not going to support him.
Governor Sarah Palin: She had to take a serious drubbing during the election. She missed the CPAC and an energy conference she was supposed to host along with Gov. Brian Schweitzer. Still, her popularity with the base is unrivaled. I suspect that she will focus on Alaska now, avoid the spotlight and try to get something done. Her job will be hard enough anyway. The collapse of the oil price could kill her ambitions, but most of the stuff that happens in Alaska doesn't get out. It will never be as it once was, but there is still tremendous potential in her rabid populist style and maybe she'll be a little better prepared next time.
Governor Bobby Jindal: His reply to the president's non-SOTU was not good, it was really bad. I'd go so far and say that it kills his chances for 2012. Yes, he is the conservative hope and future and all that, but there will be no Bobby Jindal-fraction within the party, not yet. If his false Katrina-story works against him he will be done for quite some time. Sometimes things change so fast....
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich: A very interesting case. Gingrich has got the network that Mitt Romney only dreams of. He can have an idea that electrifies the whole conservative movement as long as it gets out next to 10 other, not so good ideas. Of course, he has to carry his problematic biography around: his divorces, infidelity and unpopularity at the end of his House career. Still, if the Republicans need a leader with more experience than personality, with more ideas than slogans, they will turn towards him. Maybe he'll prefer to stay behind the scenes and to lead someone else through the campaign, that's what I actually think, but if there is no such leader, he might be very tempted to run. He could be a very good compromise candidate. Evangelicals won't like him, but they'll prefer him over Romney. Movement conservatives can support him if Jindal implodes. And well, he is a southern white conservative - that might be a rarity in 2012 (and so, if Republicans choose Newt they will walk into the past).
Governor Charlie Crist: At the moment, it is pretty much impossible for him to win a republican primary. However, if the party moves towards the center he becomes the Nr. 1 choice VERY quickly. There is almost no other possible moderate choice (Utah Gov. Huntsman aspires to fill the void). If he wins the nomination, we will know that the Reaganite Republican Party is dead and something new is in the making. It requires that the influence of social conservatives and movement conservatives has waned. Well, we need to keep an eye on him.
The field: There are other potential candidates, and there is still a lot of time - well, not so much time if you still have to make up your mind, but enough time for a long-shot candidate already in the running to jump into the spotlight. I will write about them when I think that they are "worth" it, in terms of relevance. Here is a list of the people that I consider to be these potential long-shot candidates: Mark Sanford, Haley Barbour, Jon Huntsman, Eric Cantor, Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune.
And so, my first, very basic ranking would look like this:
1. Mitt Romney (25%)
2. Sarah Palin (20%)
3. Newt Gingrich (20%)
4. Mike Huckabee (15%)
5. Bobby Jindal (5%)
6. Charlie Crist (5%)
7. The field (10%)
Romney has got the money and something of a hereditary right for the candidacy (he finished 2nd in 2008, which seems to be very good in a Republican primary under the aspect of future candidacies). The economy is his area of expertise. He is a relentless optimist, not unlike Obama, but he needs to get some authenticity, or else it looks a little phony. And of course, 25% are not that much. It's actually a rather bad sign for any party if there is no leader and no obvious successor. Romney tries to become that leader, and that's actually his only chance to stay relevant.
Several aspects have to be considered: the candidates - of course, the party structure, the primary election system, polls, and other minor factors.
The Republican Party changed their primary system. They will divide the states into three tiers, early states, small states and big states. So all the traditional early states will vote at the same time: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada. These states can give the winner a lot of momentum so we have to prefer candidates that can do well in these states.
We also have to follow the way the Republican Party is going. Will they go back to their conservative roots, that is, becoming even more conservative, or will we see a move to the center? At the moment by the way, I'd say it's the former, but it's not impossible that this is going to change at some point.
We're also getting the first polls now. The CPAC straw poll for example, showed a wide field of candidates, with Mitt Romney getting the most votes (but only 20%). A similar CNN poll a few days ago, saw Sarah Palin at the top, with Romney and Huckabee close behind, Jindal a distant 4th. But it's also very early, so the polls don't tell much yet.
At the beginning, I will give a list of the potential candidates (in my opinion) and make a few remarks about their chances in general:
Former governor Mitt Romney: As governor of Massachusetts, he proved that he could work across the aisle and he wasn't the hardcore conservative he tried to be during the 2008 primaries. There is some genuine appeal to him that seems to attract moderate republicans, pro-small business republicans, libertarians and hispanics. In fact, he has a natural appeal to every republican but the core republicans, and that's his problem. He has serious relevance problems. He needs to stay in the public eye and he needs to define his brand which is almost destroyed by his pandering. As a mormon, he can probably do whatever he wants, he will not win every single evangelical and further pandering will only hurt him. He is trying to build an intra-party network now by giving money to friendly congressmen. It reminds me of Nixon's post 1962-strategy to stay relevant. But Romney is going to collide with other Republicans there.
Former governor Mike Huckabee: As governor of Arkansas, he proved that he could work across the aisle and he wasn't the hardcore conserva... wait.... Well, Huckabee raised taxes, he isn't your ordinary fiscal conservative, but of course, he is a social conservative, probably THE social conservative in the field. He truly believes in what he says, and I suspect that this is why the republican establishment never really supported him. He is an honest man, with stern beliefs and that makes him one of the most popular republicans, with people that are no republicans. He is a good campaigner with a platform (his show on Fox News) so we can expect him to stay in the public eye for a while. Still, some very important conservative voices, Grover Norquist and every Republican who is against the strong emphasis on social conservatism, is not going to support him.
Governor Sarah Palin: She had to take a serious drubbing during the election. She missed the CPAC and an energy conference she was supposed to host along with Gov. Brian Schweitzer. Still, her popularity with the base is unrivaled. I suspect that she will focus on Alaska now, avoid the spotlight and try to get something done. Her job will be hard enough anyway. The collapse of the oil price could kill her ambitions, but most of the stuff that happens in Alaska doesn't get out. It will never be as it once was, but there is still tremendous potential in her rabid populist style and maybe she'll be a little better prepared next time.
Governor Bobby Jindal: His reply to the president's non-SOTU was not good, it was really bad. I'd go so far and say that it kills his chances for 2012. Yes, he is the conservative hope and future and all that, but there will be no Bobby Jindal-fraction within the party, not yet. If his false Katrina-story works against him he will be done for quite some time. Sometimes things change so fast....
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich: A very interesting case. Gingrich has got the network that Mitt Romney only dreams of. He can have an idea that electrifies the whole conservative movement as long as it gets out next to 10 other, not so good ideas. Of course, he has to carry his problematic biography around: his divorces, infidelity and unpopularity at the end of his House career. Still, if the Republicans need a leader with more experience than personality, with more ideas than slogans, they will turn towards him. Maybe he'll prefer to stay behind the scenes and to lead someone else through the campaign, that's what I actually think, but if there is no such leader, he might be very tempted to run. He could be a very good compromise candidate. Evangelicals won't like him, but they'll prefer him over Romney. Movement conservatives can support him if Jindal implodes. And well, he is a southern white conservative - that might be a rarity in 2012 (and so, if Republicans choose Newt they will walk into the past).
Governor Charlie Crist: At the moment, it is pretty much impossible for him to win a republican primary. However, if the party moves towards the center he becomes the Nr. 1 choice VERY quickly. There is almost no other possible moderate choice (Utah Gov. Huntsman aspires to fill the void). If he wins the nomination, we will know that the Reaganite Republican Party is dead and something new is in the making. It requires that the influence of social conservatives and movement conservatives has waned. Well, we need to keep an eye on him.
The field: There are other potential candidates, and there is still a lot of time - well, not so much time if you still have to make up your mind, but enough time for a long-shot candidate already in the running to jump into the spotlight. I will write about them when I think that they are "worth" it, in terms of relevance. Here is a list of the people that I consider to be these potential long-shot candidates: Mark Sanford, Haley Barbour, Jon Huntsman, Eric Cantor, Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune.
And so, my first, very basic ranking would look like this:
1. Mitt Romney (25%)
2. Sarah Palin (20%)
3. Newt Gingrich (20%)
4. Mike Huckabee (15%)
5. Bobby Jindal (5%)
6. Charlie Crist (5%)
7. The field (10%)
Romney has got the money and something of a hereditary right for the candidacy (he finished 2nd in 2008, which seems to be very good in a Republican primary under the aspect of future candidacies). The economy is his area of expertise. He is a relentless optimist, not unlike Obama, but he needs to get some authenticity, or else it looks a little phony. And of course, 25% are not that much. It's actually a rather bad sign for any party if there is no leader and no obvious successor. Romney tries to become that leader, and that's actually his only chance to stay relevant.
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