Senate predictions - July/August

Since I couldn't manage to make a list for July, we have 2 months of developments in just one update. The Republican position has improved since May. Their "all-men-on-board" approach is doing its best to prevent another Democratic wave election in the Senate, even though that means a loss of talent elsewhere. For example, Mark Kirk is the only viable republican candidate in the Senate in Illinois, and he runs. Mike Castle would be the only one in Delaware, but I wonder if he still wants to run, after his recent encounter with his birther base. I don't know.... I get the feeling that the 2010 election is mounting up to be a last-stand election. After that, the Republicans have to go through a severe reform process.
Anyway, for now they are not looking THAT bad. Sen. Bunning is going to retire, that's helping, too. And who knows, maybe New Hampshire AG Kelly Aiotte can mount an effective campaign against Paul Hodes.
A lot depends on the status of the Obama presidency, especially the races in the swing states, Florida, Ohio, Missouri.... That's why there's still a lot of uncertainty in some races.


Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 0 100 0
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 80 20 -0,2
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 80 20 -0,2
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 60 40 -0,4
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 70 30 -0,3
(Mel Martinez), Florida 20 80 +0,2
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 100 0 0
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 80 20 -0,2
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 0 100 0
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 0 100 0
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 70 30 +0,7
Harry Reid, Nevada 80 20 -0,2
(Judd Gregg), New Hampshire 50 50 +0,5
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Jr. 100 0 0
Richard Burr, North Carolina 30 70 +0,3
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 100 0 0
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 0 100 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 90 10 -0,1
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 30 70 +0,3
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +1,6

I've realized that only minor changes were necessary. For example, Charlie Melancon's candidacy in Louisiana is countered by the possibility of Bobby Jindal jumping into the race (noone wants to be a governor right now...). Also, I had already expected some of the developments, and there's not much that shocked me. I considered pushing the Democrats to 60% in Ohio after several similar polls, showing Portman behind Fisher AND Brunner, but too much depends on the state of the economy. I had Kentucky as a 50:50 before, and a Grayson vs. Conway race will be just that.


Senate Ranking:

1. Missouri (open) -
2. Ohio (open) +2
3. New Hampshire (open) -1
4. Kentucky (open) -1
5. Connecticut (Dodd) -
6. Texas (open) +2
7. Delaware (open) +3
8. North Carolina (Burr) -2
9. Lousiana (Vitter) +3
10. Illinois (open) new
11. Nevada (Reid) -2
12. Colorado (Bennett) -1
13. Florida (open) -6
14. Arkansas (Lincoln) -
15. Arizona (McCain) -2

Republican improvements in New Hampshire and Connecticut benefit the Ohio race, and the Delaware race continues to climb (maybe I underestimated the potential at the beginning - still, it's more a benefit of Mike Castle being in the news, while the other races, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas are suspiciously quiet....). The Florida race has dropped by a lot, I can't really quantify it, and maybe it should be higher because of all the endorsements Marco Rubio is getting, but things should go well for Crist....