US Senate predictions - January

Here's a first outlook at the upcoming US senate elections of 2010.
Since it's extremely early to do this, I will just give a rough estimate on the probability of each seat to go to either the Democrats or the Republicans. I will do this in steps of 10 percent - 90:10, 80:20 etc.... This probability then translates into a decimal gain or loss of seats for the Democrats. For example, a republican seat with a probability of 80% to stay in the republican column still means a 0,2 seat gain for the Democrats. At this stage of the cycle my result just gives a general outlook on the structural possibilities of the parties. Several races could still change fundamentally if a single outstanding politician makes a decision to either join the race or retires. For example, the Iowa seat currently occupied by Chuck Grassley is a safe republican seat, as long as Chuck Grassley doesn't retire. He still might do this though, and all of a sudden, the Democrats would have a very good pick-up opportunity.
Anyway, here are my estimates:

Incumbent, State Dem | Rep % change for Dems

Richard Shelby, Alabama 0 100 0
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 10 90 +0,1
John McCain, Arizona 10 90 +0,1
Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas 70 30 -0,3
Barbara Boxer, California 90 10 -0,1
Michael Bennett, Colorado 60 40 -0,4
Chris Dodd, Connecticut 90 10 -0,1
(Ted Kaufman), Delaware 90 10 -0,1
(Mel Martinez), Florida 50 50 +0,5
Johnny Isakson, Georgia 0 100 0
Daniel Inouye, Hawai'i 90 10 -0,1
Mike Crapo, Idaho 0 100 0
(Roland Burris), Illinois 10 90 -0,1
Evan Bayh, Indiana 100 0 0
Chuck Grassley, Iowa 20 80 +0,2
(Sam Brownback), Kansas 30 70 +0,3
Jim Bunning, Kentucky 50 50 +0,5
David Vitter, Louisiana 20 80 +0,2
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland 100 0 0
(Kit Bond), Missouri 60 40 +0,6
Harry Reid, Nevada 70 30 -0,3
Judd Gregg, New Hampshire 30 70 +0,3
Chuck Schumer, New York 100 0 0
(???), New York Jr. 90 10 -0,1
Richard Burr, North Carolina 40 60 +0,4
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota 80 20 -0,2
Tim Coburn, Oklahoma 100 0 0
(George Voinovich), Ohio 50 50 +0,5
Ron Wyden, Oregon 100 0 0
Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania 50 50 +0,5
Jim DeMint, South Carolina 0 100 0
John Thune, South Dakota 0 100 0
(Kay B. Hutchison), Texas 20 80 +0,2
Bob Bennett, Utah 0 100 0
Patrick Leahy, Vermont 100 0 0
Patty Murray, Washington 100 0 0
Russ Feingold, Wisconsin 100 0 0

Overall Estimate of Democratic gains: +2,6


A few comments:
- We still need to hear from a few politicians and their plans for the cycle. They are: Mike Huckabee in Arkansas, Chuck Grassley in Iowa, Kathleen Sebelius in Kansas, Mitch Landrieu in Louisiana, John Hoeven in North Dakota and Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas. These people have a tremendous effect on the race in their state in the sense that their decision to run or not to run can flip a seat. Sen. Hutchison is a special case because her "retirement" to run for Governor would trigger the special election that would give the Democrats a fair chance to get the seat.
- Polling has just started and the estimates will soon change. I already had to adjust my estimate for North Carolina because of the vulnerability of Sen. Burr. Once again, my estimate can only demonstrate the structural problems of the Republicans, who are hurt by the retirements and their slightly higher number of seats to defend. The polls will soon show how the national climate effects the elections.
- Although my estimate is looking good for the Democrats, there is just one seat more likely to change party than not, Missouri. It could still be possible that we don't have any changes at all. On the other hand, the Democrats will be very happy with "only" 60-61 seats, and that result is a very likely one.